S&P
Daily Spot… Wide ranges, little movement.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Further weakness Wednesday tested 1.1095 support down to 1.1066, reacting up on FOMC Minutes, but remaining in negative territory under 1.1160. Still overlapping Tuesday”s lows does make it difficult to fulfill the outstanding objective.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s plunge to test 1208.50 didn”t extend down Wednesday, so the break wasn”t confirmed. Closing back above 1213.00 would be target a retest of the rally”s 1232.00 target. Closing under 1205.00 would resume the drop, still needing confirmation.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming slightly Wednesday was too shallow to reverse momentum back up, but it did avoid confirming Tuesday”s break. Closing back above 17.25 would target 18.15.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially dipping Wednesday to within 1 tick of Tuesday”s 151-28 low was recovered entirely to retest the decline”s 152-02 bounce limit. Having stopped optimistically short of actually touching the low before bouncing, lower lows remain likely.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly didn”t extend higher Wednesday, even in reaction to the EIA report. A second consecutive lower close was avoided, so the likely pullback target of 55.00 isn”t necessarily in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday stopped well short of filling the gap back to Tuesday”s gap up, before reversing into negative territory. Having that unfinished business above does reflect a modest position of strength in greeting Thursday”s EIA report.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s Philly is the only Fed survey with a track record for influencing price action. And it”s being announced simultaneously with two other reports, one being LEI which is also reliably influential.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Stanley Fischer Speaks — hawkish
1:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
FOMC Hours.
Impending news release is inhibiting the recovery.
The reaction up from 2119.25 probed 1 point above 2125.25. A pullback from there was likely to recover, since it would have originated from a position of strength.
In fact, a pullback did recover. I had not expected so deep of a pullback, all the way down to 2121.00 which was the deepest a pullback would be allowed. So, I still assume that was only a temporary pullback.
Back under 2121.00 would suggest otherwise. This afternoon”s 2:00 ET release of FOMC Minutes is just a couple of hours away. Greeting the news from under 2121.00 would be vulnerable to reacting very poorly, or else to rejecting an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up.
An attraction remains outstanding above at 2128.50. Greeting the news from under it, but from above 2125.25, would be likelier to react favorably, if not recover from from initially dipping.
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.25 | 2127.25 |
| …would target | 2135.50 | 2132.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.00 | 2120.00 |
| …would target | 2118.00 | 2115.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… One down. Two up?
Open”s drop is absorbed and reversed.
As expected, regardless of its direction, the open”s first trending attempt was likely to extend 5-6 points. Try 7, from 2126.00 down to 2119.25. That fulfilled unfinished business below left outstanding yesterday.
It also touched this morning”s bias-down signal. And oversold RSIs there were quickly neutralized. Price has trended back up since then.
So, also as suspected, the attraction below could be tested without reversing momentum down — if its test were isolated to a relevant timing window. Having bounced already to 2126.25, the downside momentum does seem done.
Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 has now put into play an offsetting test of the 2128.50 bias-up signal. Extending above it would next be attracted back up to yesterday”s pre-open high. Its test isn”t required, but it would better enable a downleg to begin.
Regardless of the path higher, it remains intact so long as pullbacks hold any test of 2122.50. Timing is likely to be impacted by the impending afternoon release of FOMC Minutes.