S&P
Overnight action isn”t committing to
Overnight action isn”t committing to either direction. Attractions are outstanding above and below. And Wednesday”s open is being greeted at essentially the midpoint between each. Immediate post-open trending would be compelling for extending 5-6 points in that direction. But there isn”t much indication at this moment about which direction that might be. Here”s more in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzpcwy
The First Trade… A little TOO calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The first signs of topping appeared Tuesday. After having met the 2128.00 target Monday, and probing room for noise up to 2133.00 by an overnight surge, Tuesday”s open was greeted back under 2128.00 on the way down to 2122.50. The afternoon”s false break higher was reversed to a fresh session low. The close bounced, but sellers gained a little traction by entering the final hour under the bias environment”s range, negating the bias environment”s exit above the noon hour”s range. Meanwhile, unfinished business was left outstanding below at 2119.25.
Overnight action”s new info…
Choppy sideways action has avoided touching yesterday”s low, repeatedly testing 2122.00 and bouncing to 2126.00.
If, then…
Tuesday”s 2134.00 pre-open high doesn”t require a retest, but it is still an attraction until momentum reverses down. Testing 2119.25 below can be ignored temporarily by a detour back to the highs, or tested without reversing momentum down. Opening in rally mode would be credible for trending up this morning. Not opening in rally mode would be likelier to probe fresh lows, becoming vulnerable to extending down if not recovered almost immediately.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2130.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2128.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
The rally is getting shaky.
The rally is getting shaky. Monday fulfilled Its 2128 target and Globex tested its 2133 room for noise. Tuesday”s open rejected both. Tuesday afternoon”s fresh intraday high at 2130.25 was rejected, too, reversing back under the morning”s low to 2121.25. Unfinished business was left outstanding below at 2119.25.
Tuesday”s post-market Wrap depicted the similarities to February”s top, which is how we”ve been expecting this rally leg to end. It”s not a perfect replica, but it was close. And the rally”s uptrend held its lower low, but it was close. I noted several other conditions that were of concern here:
http://marketfy.com/product/rod-davids-futures-market-timing/blog/1176/view/82416/
Wednesday”s session could be very revealing. Like pre-expiration, big money must position before liquidity begins evaporating into the three-day holiday weekend. Closing Wednesday above Monday night”s highs could marginalize sellers into and out of the weekend. Otherwise… it”s close.
That”s also reviewed in Tuesday”s post-market Wrap, linked below:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfptmry …OR…
MP4 version here: https://www.anymeeting.com/189-496-275/E950DE87854A3D
And here are tonight”s chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/527-368-368
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.50 | 2128.50 |
| …would target | 2136.50 | 2133.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.25 | 2119.25 |
| …would target | 2117.25 | 2114.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Is this unfolding already?
New high”s reaction down is extending.
An offsetting test of this morning”s 2119.25 bias-down signal was put into play by holding the 2127.25 bias-up signal”s test through 10:15. And then by failing the attempt to recover 2127.25 by 10:30. And then by failing the attempt to recover 2127.75 by 11:30.
All the while, price was trending up. Higher highs and higher lows formed an Ascending Triangle that persisted through the noon hour. The pattern projected a false break higher, which reversed down from its 2129.50 target area.
That reversal down has extended to fresh session lows. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs ere oversold at the 2121.25 low, requiring its retest. A 4-point bounce may not have prevented the drop from resuming today.
Regardless of the bounce”s resolution today, the reaction down from overnight highs should be alarming.
– The 2128.00 target was met yesterday,
– the room for noise up to 2133.00 was tested,
– the overnight high is not a new “Globex trending extreme” requiring intraday retest,
– and probing above yesterday”s high intraday (up to 2130.25 this afternoon) was reversed to a fresh session low.
The bigger picture still expects the ultimate high to be shallow and to be reversed abruptly into a durable downleg. Not exceeding today”s highs through tomorrow”s close might be due to already trending down sharply.