S&P
Plus ca change… Remember that
Plus ca change… Remember that overnight surge which tested the target”s 2133 upper-end? It has now been retraced back down to 2127.25, which is this morning”s bias-up signal. It is support from above, but resistance from below. So, holding it or not through a relevant timing window could be predictive of the balance of the morning, if not of the session. Retesting or attacking the overnight high this morning remains likely, but that depends on post-open action almost immediately ignoring this pre-open dip. Extending it still could be recovered, but that”s more problematic. Details were discussed in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybkspt
The First Trade… Taking out targets.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX signal continued its influence through Monday morning. Recovering above 2115.00 was extended first to attack 2121.00, and then 2125.00. The afternoon”s attack on 2129.00 held up long enough for the rally to gain traction. A last-minute dip tested 2125.00 into the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s late 5-point dip from attacking 2129.00 was recovered just enough to pierce it by midnight. That held until Europe”s opens, which then doubled the gain by surging to 2134.00. The surge hasn”t extended, and consolidating around 2131-2132.00 is now dipping to 2130.00.
If, then…
Reversing down this morning is possible, since the target”s 2133.00 upper-end has been met. But its intraday retest likely because yesterday”s rally gained traction. The reward is control of the next morning”s bias environment — also with some complexity or trending. Otherwise, except for an errant tick at 2129.00, only a singular leg produced 2134.00, so it is not necessarily a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. A pre-open dip back to or under yesterday”s highs would make the overnight high”s retest likelier to hold, instead of extending higher today to 2140.00. Caveat: A pre-open dip into negative territory still could extend down this morning — after all, a big target has been met.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2132.25 bias-up target through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2130.00 would be likely to trigger the 2127.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Following are tonight”s chaRTroom links.
Following are tonight”s chaRTroom links. We”re working on another candidate to test, which would replace the Anymeeting signal (the ilinc/Mitel will continue). It won”t be done abruptly, but if you notice the chart missing, I”ll have posted the new link.
Don”t worry — the replacement candidate”s controls are intuitive and I”ll send instructions. If needed, the Anymeeting and ilinc/Mitel can always be made available.
Thanks for helping to test the new candidates. We”ve used ilinc/Mitel for 6-7 years, so it”s very important that its replacement be thoroughly vetted and accepted by subscribers. Tonight”s links are:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/748-789-958
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.50 | 2127.25 |
| …would target | 2135.50 | 2132.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.50 | 2119.25 |
| …would target | 2117.50 | 2114.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday”s new high close was
Monday”s new high close was more impressive than the morning”s follow-through of last week”s bullish WedEX signal. Not that the follow-through wasn”t impressive, but its influence ended by noon Monday. The balance of the session had freedom to trend back down.
And it didn”t trend back down. The balance of the session didn”t even range sideways. The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high, and then trending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. It wasn”t much trending, so its extension wasn”t much — no more than it had to be, 2128.75.
But the new high wasn”t rejected. It was retraced, sliding 4 points into the cash session close. But the last relative low at 2125.50 was still being overlapped, not broken. So long as Tuesday”s open isn”t breaking under Monday”s 2122.50 noon hour low, the rally should control the morning by trending up to fresh highs… with room up to 2133.
Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzpyvc
PROGRAMMING NOTE:
chaRTroom will be offline for a short while as we try installing and initiating an alternative conferencing software to test. I”ll post/email chaRTroom links later. As always, we”ll implement the Anymeeting back-up in case of any difficulty.