S&P
Pre-close view… Hardly restrained.
Still probing fresh highs.
Sellers were unable to exploit the bullish WedEX”s expiring influence. The noon hour”s narrow ranging barely pierced its 2123.00 pullback limit. The afternoon”s noN-bias signal allowed fresh highs up to 2127.50.
That”s within 3 ticks of the 2128.00 target.
A 2-point dip has recovered into the final hour. But although the bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, the final hour wasn”t entered above the bias environment”s high. That would have signaled buyers gaining traction.
There”s a proxy — trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could signal a short-squeeze underway with room up to 2133.00.
Unless the 3:10-3:20 timing window were to trend down, the session continues to be more vulnerable to trending up than to ranging or to reversing down.
Daily Spot… Euro hanging on to support by its fingernails.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s 1.1328-1.1472 outside day that began by gapping down to the lower-end of Thursday”s 1.1348-1.1457 range was still considered bearish, since the close was still overlapping Thursday”s high. And still overlapping Thursday”s high meant that gapping down Monday doesn”t require filling the gap back to Friday”s high. In fact, Monday”s session trended down intraday, probing under Thursday and Friday”s ranges to test 1.1300. Almost any lower close Tuesday would confirm Monday”s reversal was extending.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s high touched the 1232.00 target, but wasn”t touched intraday as Monday”s session fluctuated narrowly around last week”s 1227.70 high. There is no unfinished business above, but upward momentum remains intact so long as 1224.00 now holds as support.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s opening surge to fresh highs testing 17.75 consolidated in positive territory throughout the day, closing above prior highs, keeping upward momentum intact.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s nearly 3-point rally to 155-20/155-27 didn”t comport to the template we were tracking, but Monday”s substantial retracement did. Stopping optimistically short at the upper-end of Thursday”s range now requires bounces to hold 154-08/154-12 to maintain Monday”s downward momentum. The 150-25 target remains intact, preferably confirmed by closing Tuesday under Thursday”s 152-12 low.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from Jun to Jul, 1.65 premium] Suday”s initial firming tried again to rally out of the 60.30 pullback limit, but its surge to 61.70 was retraced to 59.85 — not quite reversing down, but requiring an almost immediate recovery above 60.75-61.00 to avoid a new downleg.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No higher objectives are outstanding, but Monday”s narrow sideways ranging didn”t reject the uptrend”s momentum..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 19 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s pre-open housing sector report may be influential because of the focus on it being the day”s only high-profile report. Neither it nor the day”s only other report is likely to be strong, which could be bullish for the morning. The afternoon”s dovish Fed speaker might have added to this bullishness previously, but nowadays that”s true only in relief for not sounding too hawkish.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks — dove
3:00 AM ET
Brave new world (again).
Surge to new highs is now on its own legs.
The bias environment”s consolidation broke higher to touch its 2123.25 bias-up signal at 11:30 as the bias environment began lapsing. That has been probed up to 2124.75.
And, still, both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought simultaneously. A reaction down is possible, but not very likely to reverse the trend down.
Reacting down could test 2120.25 as support before suggesting the momentum is reversing down. Meanwhile, the rally”s minimum 2128.00 target remains in-play.
As for the bullish WedEX, its influence is now zero. Monday”s behavior was more aggressive than Friday. Its slope was steeper, its productivity was greater, and it was active (probe resistance) instead of passive (range bound).
Meanwhile, there remains potential for a new trend high close today. And potential for a new trend high to be reversed abruptly. First things, first.
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2128.00 | 2124.50 |
| …would target | 2133.25 | 2130.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.00 | 2116.75 |
| …would target | 2115.25 | 2111.75 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.