S&P
Pre-close view… Spittin’ distance.
Bias-up target neutralized. Buyers, too?
The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high. But the final hour”s entry was within the bias environment”s range. So, buyers haven”t gained traction for their efforts. Meanwhile, their efforts have been rewarded by coming to within 3 ticks of the 2117.75 bias-up target.
Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 window would serve by proxy for having entered the final hour meekly. In fact, the window just opened by probing fresh highs.
That 3:10-3:20 can become bearish if its rally effort fails. Exiting the window back under the highs it started probing would trap longs, not shorts.
So long as 2116.25 were to hold a test as support, the balance of the session could extend to new highs. Back under 2114.75 would signal momentum reversing down for a corrective dip to 2111.75.
Daily Spot… Could Crude crumble?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday through 1.1400 fulfilled the setup triggered by Wednesday”s opening surge.Reversing down extended into negative territory. Thursday”s gap up above all prior highs at 1.1413 does need to be retested before a credible downleg could begin.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming prices into Thursday”s session were maintained to confirm Wednesday”s breakout, targeting 1232.00, and now requiring an eventual third higher close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s rally extended higher Thursday to 17.60, confirming the breakout to now require at least an eventual third higher close, and still targeting a probe above 18.00.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s narrowly ranging session was optimal for a pattern that still needed to absorb the recent shock-to-the system — now including Wednesday”s intraday slide. The narrow range did hover optimistically above Tuesday”s prior lows, suggesting it will be probed. Avoiding an actual touch of 151-16, or else probing it down to 150-25, would still allow a bottom to form.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s deeper dip following Wednesday”s failure to confirm Tuesday”s rally does threaten to reverse down. Rallying again from 59.30 would be credible. Otherwise, closing back under 58.65 would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its reaction up to fresh highs was maintained to fulfill the confirmed breakout”s requirement for at least a third higher close. The surge consolidated narrowly around 3.00 and formed an ascending triangle likely to break higher.
Bias-up , up and away
Post-open uptrend remains intact and productive.
As suspected before the open, today”s gap up was very different from yesterday”s. Its intent was not to fulfill a signal before likely reversing down, but to signal that a reversal down was not likely. And the reward at this stage of the pattern — with each prior sell-off never indicating a trend reversal — is to extend to new highs.
This morning”s rally to 2111.00 was consolidated back down to 2108.00 support into the noon hour. The rally resumed, and has extended to fresh highs into the bias environment. The prior relative high is being probed up to 2116.50, within 5 ticks of this afternoon”s bias-up target.
Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought, which does introduce a vulnerability to reacting down, but also indicates that a reaction down would be only temporary. A reaction down could test 2110.75 without threatening to reverse the trend down, so long as the bias environment isn”t exited at 2:30 under its 2111.50 bias-up signal.
Just exiting the bias environment back under 2114.75 would suggest today”s rally has peaked, but not necessarily that it is being reversed. The 2119.75 prior high should be probed by 1 point before the next correction, probably shallow.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Only Friday”s Consumer Sentiment report has a track record for influencing price action. But it probably won”t be capable of reversing any trending already underway.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.50 | 2111.50 |
| …would target | 2121.75 | 2117.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.25 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2102.50 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.