S&P
Post-open review… Nixed signals.
Opening surge”s correction is recovered.
2109.00 didn”t require being touched after the open. But if buyers were going to try that hard, then not attracting reinforcements by 9:45 would suggest those buyers were weak-handed. That”s why recovering it through 9:45 would have made the 2105.00 bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal.
2109.00 was touched, and it was not exceeded through 9:45. But I discounted that. Its 2nd-minute timing thin participation lessened the significance of rejecting it.
That didn”t lessen the consequence. Its reaction fell almost 6 points to 2103.50. That was sufficient to reward the few early sellers who absorbed the open”s momentary surge.
The 2105.00 bias-up target did hold its test as support, and was recovered through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Renewed bias-up targets are 2110.00 (met), 2114.75, and 2120.75. Upside momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks hold 2106.00-2106.75.
Here”s the XP-Friendly alternative”s new
Here”s the XP-Friendly alternative”s new URL for this morning. Please let me know if you encounter any difficulty using it, and thank you for your patience!
http://anymeeting.com/164-025-052
The recording of the pre-market Tour will be linked in this post”s comments section in the Activity Feed. Or, email me and I”ll send it to you as soon as I get it.
chartroom@roddavid.com
Summary: The open is indicated to gap up 3 points above the bias-up target. That”s at least 1 point short of the preliminary 2109 whose recovery through 9:45 would all but ensure trending even higher through the morning. Not extending higher through 9:45 could prove as bearish to the same degree as the setup could have been bullish.
The First Trade… Try, try again and again.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s session was contained by Tuesday”s “equilibrium” signal. A pre-open surge to 2105.75 was retraced to 2096.00. A post-open surge retested the pre-open surge, and was retraced even faster to 2093.00. Afternoon choppiness continually returned down to 2093.00, but a late probe of it reacted back up into the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Wednesday”s late reaction up initially extended to 2098.50. Sliding touched 2092.00 soon after Europe”s opens, and reacted back up abruptly. Yesterday”s 2105.75 pre-open high was touched to within 1 tick, and price has hovered under there since then.
If, then…
Here we go again? There”s a difference between yesterday”s rally effort, and today”s. The promise of yesterday”s trending efforts were vulnerable to their equilibrium origin, which prevented them from extending. Yesterday”s trending attempts were the product of a signal that both launched them and reversed them. Today”s trending is the signal, launching from yesterday afternoon”s setup that requires trending to begin by gapping up or surging immediately. This trending attempt”s promise is vulnerable, too, and not extending higher post-open could retrace back to yesterday”s lows with little hesitation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.50 would make the 2099.50 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open above 2109.00 would be likely also to recover the 2105.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
The last hint of weakness
The last hint of weakness came just after Europe”s opens. Choppiness up to 2098 blipped-down 2092 and reacted back up abruptly, this time extending to 2105.50. I”ll have more shortly. Meanwhile, here are this morning”s chaRTroom links:
Win – XP friendly: http://anymeeting.com/583-613-619
non-xp ilinc-Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyyts
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.75 | 2099.50 |
| …would target | 2109.25 | 2105.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.25 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2086.25 | 2082.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.