S&P
Equilibriumed out.
Minimum downside objective met, and so far held.
The likelihood for extending down to at least 2093.50 was fulfilled. It was probed by 3 ticks. Twice, forming a close-quarters double bottom. That setup”s likely objective was a bounce to 2096.00, which was then thoroughly tested.
Now a retest of the close-quarters double bottom setup has reacted up again, testing 2098.50. That could be far enough removed from the low to launch another rally leg. The morning”s equilibrium lapses with the bias environment. The door is open to new highs.
Back under 2096.00 and 2094.25 would signal a deeper probe into negative territory, targeting 2088.00-2090.00. It”s not necessary, as the post-open decline will suffice as a convincing but failed trending attempt. But that door remains open, too, until the next rally leg has begun.
Post-open review… Just say noN.
Pre-open and post-open rally efforts fail.
The post-open rally was bigger than its pre-open predecessor. And steeper. And shorter-lived.
A 5-minute surge from the open pierced the overnight high by 3 ticks up to 2106.50. And then the surge stopped. A 2-1/2 point range of congestion formed there, supported by an overlapping the 2104.25 preliminary indicator — neither recovering it or rejecting it at 9:45.
Its eventual reaction has trended down. The 2101.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped, too, at 10:15. And also at 10:30, so this is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define the morning”s upper-end, and an offsetting test of the bias-down signal isn”t required. Its break lower just touched 2095.00.
Yesterday”s closing “equilibrium” signal seems alive and well. Two convincing trending attempts have been retraced back into yesterday”s range.
They haven”t alternated between positive and negative territory, so I”m reluctant to entertain a buy signal under 2099.50, or until 2093.50 or 2090.00 is tested… perhaps even the 2088.00 bias-down signal, which isn”t required.
Vulnerability of a promise, indeed…
Vulnerability of a promise, indeed… The overnight rally to fresh highs melted back into yesterday”s range. Its reaction up was reversed even deeper. It dipped to 2096, the same 2096 that was overlapped by each of yesterday”s timing windows. The same 2006 that suggested an “equilibrium” morning of alternating failed trending attempts. Trending that can be pretty convincing, just before it reverses entirely. In fact, a spike up just touched 2100, which is an actionable candidate we discussed during the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpthjr
The First Trade… The vulnerability of a promise.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night”s slide exceeded its 2091.25 pullback limit considerably. Tuesday”s volatile open ranged choppily under that limit, and probed above it. Each timing window probed higher and higher, although each leg overlapped the morning”s test of 2096.00-2097.00. Buyers didn”t gain traction, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high. But neither of the next two timing windows extended higher — the final hour”s entry and 3:10-3:20 remained within the noon hour and bias environment ranges.
Overnight action”s new info…
Lacking traction didn”t prevent extending higher, first to test 2101.50 last night, and more recently to briefly touch 2105.75. That has reacted down to test 2101.50 as support.
If, then…
Overnight highs are probing back within Monday afternoon”s range, chipping away at its resistance and clearing the way for any post-open effort. If there is one. Gapping up is necessary to resume a rally that didn”t gain traction. So, this action is promising, keeping alive potential to new highs within 24-48 hours. Meanwhile, no prior traction also makes gapping up vulnerable. Not extending it post-open can produce a rubber band effect whose reversal down retests yesterday afternoon”s lows, which are 15-16 points lower.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to attack Friday”s 2090.00 noon hour lows, and perhaps also this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 13 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s Retail Sales report has a history of influencing price action, but only when it is surprising — which isn”t that rare anymore.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET