S&P
30-minute countdown to this weekend”s
30-minute countdown to this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the market”s likely paths next week, and strategies for playing them. And we”ll review your stock chart analysis requests, including indicator and pattern insights that they offer. It begins at 9:30am ET, choose one of the following links to attend:
Win XP-friendly: http://anymeeting.com/974-844-174
[non-xp / ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy]
Don”t mess with Mother Nature,
Don”t mess with Mother Nature, or with Friday Factors, for that matter. Exiting the morning”s bias environment above the open”s high is already a sign of strength. Much more so when the open”s high was above prior highs. Much, much more so on Fridays. That doesn”t in itself point higher, but it an marginalize sellers.
That”s how Friday played out. Buyers became entrenched, but didn”t extend above the morning”s highs. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower — not unlikely Thursday afternoon, except that was the product of anxiousness and Friday was a product of absence.
[Here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording for more:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvzbkc ]
This week”s price action was tremendous, as was the prior week. Gapping up on Monday and reversing down sharply through the week, until recovering. Both weeks. That volatility is not going to stop suddenly, although it might try. And a third temporary dip is very unlikely. So, either a durable decline or the long-awaited new highs are likely.
We”ll discuss the market”s likely paths at this weekend”s Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30am ET. And we”ll review your stock chart analysis requests, including indicator and pattern insights that they offer. Choose one of the following links to attend:
Win XP-friendly: http://anymeeting.com/974-844-174
[non-xp / ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy]
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2116.25 | 2112.00 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2118.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2102.75 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Friday Factor.
Still time for a squeeze?
The afternoon”s bias environment”s 2108.00 exit at 2:30 was under the noon hour”s low. Entering the noon hour even lower would have given sellers traction, but it was entered at 2110.00.
Fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be a proxy for the final hour”s entry. But the window is bouncing, not dropping.
Probing the bias environment”s 2112.00 high through 3:20 would at least trigger trending through the close. It has been attacked to within2 ticks, and would get a benefit of the doubt if probed without any interim retracement.
Meanwhile, there”s no requirement to trend any more so today. But trending down continues to be the least likely option.
There won”t be any hold-long (or hold-short) today. And don”t forget about tomorrow morning”s Saturday Review!
Daily Spot… Crude pullback done?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The pullback from testing 1.1380 extended down into Friday”s open, testing 1.1225-1.280 support down to 1.1185. Sellers didn”t gain traction from gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory without also breaking under a prior low. A fresh low Monday would be bearish, but there is otherwise potential back up to 1.1315.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Friday to attack 1194.50 was reversed to range choppily around 1187.00. Its break would be confirmed under 1182.70 as targeting new lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s blip-up above 16.50 in reaction to the Employment Situation report was reversed back down initially, but the balance of the session ranged around it without signaling a resolution either way.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the recovery from Wednesday night”s test of 153-10 up to 156-03 had become a little extended into Friday”s Employment Situation report. Its knee-jerk reaction settled around 157-00 for the balance of the day. The bounce may extend to 157-16 without reversing the trend up, and while being vulnerable to retesting 154-02.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from testing 62.45 extended a little deeper Friday morning to 58.25. Much of a bullish “pivot reversal” setup formed — gapping up in a downtrend and closing positive with an interim intraday dip to fresh trend lows. Back above 60.15 would resume the rally to at least retest 62.45.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s shallow pullback was reversed by gapping up to fresh highs Friday, with potential for extending to 3.00, so long as 2.80 support isn”t revisited.