S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Sterling rallied on Friday”s election results, which created a favorable environment to greet the payrolls report. Monday morning”s unusually-timed BOE policy statement can influence price action, too.
*BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
New highs just a formality?
Don”t forget about Friday Factors.
The gap up had extended to within a tick of the thrice-renewed 2111.00 bias-up target. Back under 2107.00 would have triggered a reversal, but it was only touched before resuming the trend to fresh highs.
Probing fresh highs before 11:30 entrenched today”s momentum. The next higher target is 2114.75, although its test isn”t required. More important is that exiting the bias environment at fresh highs on Fridays is very difficult to reverse down.
Not impossible, just difficult.
Back under 2109.75 would start to signal a dip to 2104.25 in-play. It could be probed down to 2101.50. Regardless, it would likely be only temporary — and recovered entirely. The exception would to avoid recovering a prior low remained coming out of the bias environment at 2:30.
Please don”t underestimate the degree of difficulty in reversing down without. The bias environment”s exit is the one window that would be credible. Meanwhile, interim dips should be recovered.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2119.25 | 2114.75 |
| …would target | 2124.75 | 2120.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2003.00 | 1998.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Can the post-open extensions still extend?
Extending the payrolls reaction doesn”t prevent a dip.
The pre-open surge to 2106.00 resistance had reacted down to 2101.50 support. Ranging narrowly into the open suddenly surged back up to 2106.00. Exceeding it targeted 2111.00, which was tested to within 1 tick.
That was all before 10:15. There has been no higher high since then. The bias environment must be productive for sellers to be marginalized.
It”s true that the bias parameters are deprecated being so far removed from their origin. It”s silly to think that price action 25-30 points lower is very influential. More so, 2111.00 is a thrice-renewed bias-up target. Just the word “thrice” is silly. Thrice. Heh-heh.
But the bias timing window nevertheless contains a common mentality among its participants. If they don”t produce a fresh high, then perhaps buyers can from a lower level.
So, probing above 2111.00 before 11:30 would help to marginalize sellers for the day. Otherwise, a dip to 2104.25 or 2101.50 can”t yet be discounted.
This morning”s Employment Situation report
This morning”s Employment Situation report was greeted at yesterday”s 2088 high. Still under 2090-2095, but perhaps more so for stopping pessimistically short of probing it. In any case, the reaction was very optimistic, surging to 2101.50 and then extended to test 2106.
Bias parameters aren”t very relevant when the open is indicated at or beyond what would be a doubly-renewed target. That”s 2101.50, and exceeding 2104.25 through 9:45 would be likely hold above 2101.50 and probe higher highs. Exiting the open under 2098.50 would be less likely to exceed 2101.50 before extending the pullback to test 2095.25.
Beware this bearish scenario: Sliding through the open to test 2093.50. That could bring out sellers through the morning. Otherwise, the door to new highs is open. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrbysj
P.S. Reminder: Saturday Review tomorrow!