S&P
The First Trade… Greeting payrolls AT resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s open gapped down 4 points to test
2070.00. Weak, but the much greater weakness of probing 4 points under Wednesday”s 2061.25 low was isolated to overnight action. A test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal was put into play and attracted price higher. Extending higher through the noon hour to 2088.00 created room to absorb afternoon selling without damaging the chart, and 2080.50 held its touch before the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
The closing bounce tested
2085.00 trended higher overnight and eventually probed fresh highs at 2091.25. Its reaction down attacked 2085.00, twice. Each attack bounced back above 2088.00, which is being probed again now.
If, then…
Critical resistance at 2090.00-2095.25 is being tested overnight. Its range has been pivotal during the past four weeks. Two prior closes under it were resolved by gapping up above and extending to new highs. Tuesday”s close under it didn”t recover, as price action since then has been exclusively under 2090.00-2095.25. A lot of energy would be expended to probe above it, so there could be a very bearish consequence to not maintaining its recovery through a relevant timing window. Which assumes it will be probed, at all, since this morning”s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness being below it.So, more than an initially negative knee-jerk reaction could find recent lows have chipped away at support. Either way, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Preliminary levels are not available before an Employment Situation report. Look for their levels to be available in the chaRTroom after the report”s reaction.
Here”s the chaRTroom”s overnight link,
Here”s the chaRTroom”s overnight link, which will be replaced in the morning (which will be available in the First Trade blog post):
http://anymeeting.com/123-388-098
Morning bias
.
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2091.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.75 | 2078.50 |
| …would target | 2078.00 | 2072.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
No surprises Thursday afternoon. Rallying
No surprises Thursday afternoon. Rallying through the noon hour was intended to allow selling pressure without it damaging the recovery”s momentum. Selling pressure was a product of anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report.
Recovering from a dip under 2080.50 would have qualified as holding it as support. The afternoon”s dip only touched 2080.50, before probing above 2084 into the close. Closing above 2084 would have made the reaction to Friday”s report likely to be up, and to extend higher. Still overlapping it at the close still leaves potential for an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.
And then up. Or, else.
Beyond just a knee-jerk reaction, morning weakness can still be bullish if the bias environment is exited back above 2080.50-2084.00. But morning weakness would not be optimal to a recovery, so the burden of proof would be on buyers.
Here”s the post-market Wrap recording for more details. I”ll send the new meeting room link later…
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrbyxj
Pre-close view… No traction, no action?
Rally holds up, but on-hold — with one door open.
The bias environment”s relatively narrow ranging was exited within the noon hour”s range. And now the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. Nothing can be done today for buyers to gain traction for their efforts.
Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still be credible for triggering a rally into the 3;37-3:52 position-squaring window. Closing back under the noon hour”s high would greet tomorrow”s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness, and require gapping up to avoid trending down.
Back under 2082.50 would target 2078.25, possibly lower — but not too much lower, or else there won”t be time to close back above 2080.50 and greet the Employment Situation report from a position of strength.