S&P
Daily Spot… Euro target and Bond target both reacting sharply.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s two attacks on the rally”s 1.1380 target were nevertheless probed overnight before reversing to gap down Thursday morning. Two consecutive closes under 1.1315 would start to deflate the bubble that formed during the past week. The bubble can otherwise further inflate to 1.1545.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding the 1194.50 bounce limit, an aggressive drop overnight through 1187.00 to 1178.00 helped to compensate for Wednesday”s attacks on it that had held. New lows remain in-play so long as bounces now hold 1182.70.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The open”s gap down to 16.15 support reacted up to 16.50 resistance. Each held, with no new signal being generated.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for noise under the 154-02 target at 153-10 was tested overnight down to 153-10, and reacted up sharply before the open to gap up and extend intraday to 156-00.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from having met the 62.45 target extended overnight and Thursday morning down to 58.49. Back above 59.35 would stop the reversal down, which otherwise has no objective, just as there is no outstanding target above.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of weakness, the pattern was still more vulnerable to a corrective dip than to extending the rally. Its 2.63-2.67 pullback potential was hardly attacked by Thursday”s 2071.00 low.
Can we play the anxiousness ahead of NFP?
Extended higher during the noon hour, but only so high.
Holding this morning”s 2070.00 bias-down signal”s test through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal. It was met, held a retest, and reacted down a little. But really, its resistance was just waiting for the bias environment to lapse.
When the bias environment lapsing came into view 10-15 minutes earlier, the rally resumed. Or, at least, it extended.
Testing and retesting 2088.00 was reversed back under under this afternoon”s 2086.00 bias-up signal to avoid it triggering. Bouncing from 2083.00 has reacted back down from 2086.00.
We discussed this morning the goal a noon hour bounce, to create room for an afternoon pullback without it damaging the chart. The damage would begin by closing back under 2080.50. Back under 2082.50 would target 2079.00 intraday. It would be difficult to recover today from any lower.
Optimism can”t be too extreme ahead of tomorrow”s report. Trending above 2086.00 when the bias environment begins lapsing soon would be credible for extending higher through the next hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Here it comes, April”s payrolls report. And it”s pretty much in a vacuum since the post-open report has no track record for influencing price action.
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
A compilation of issues with
A compilation of issues with the latest test candidate have prompted us to move on. Here”s a link to a new room via Anymeeting, which would be our pick if not for limiting our connectivity:
http://anymeeting.com/198-611-800
Thanks for your feedback, and for your patience!
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2097.00 | 2092.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.50 | 2075.50 |
| …would target | 2075.00 | 2069.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.