S&P
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.00 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2096.00 | 2090.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.50 | 2074.50 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2069.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Bias-down renewed, but not recharged.
Pre-open optimism ambushed by post-open plunge.
Pre-open ranging around the 2089.75 bias-up signal didn”t make it any likelier to trigger. Exceeding 2092.75 through 9:45 would have been helpful. Indeed, the open”s surge probed it by 1 point.
But it wasn”t yet 9:45. By then, quickly reversing under 2090.00 had triggered a sell signal that extended down to 2076.25.
The 2075.50 bias-down signal was probed by 5 points, and not recovered by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. The renewed bias-down target at 2069.75 is in-play.
A bounce has now extended up to the 2080.50 bias-down signal. It is resistance, and back under 2076.25 would target the low”s retest, and the 2069.75 renewed bias-down target. Exiting the bias environment at 2080.50 would negate the renewed target.
Post-open review… Bias-down renewed, but not recharged.
Pre-open optimism ambushed by post-open plunge.
Pre-open ranging around the 2089.75 bias-up signal didn”t make it any likelier to trigger. Exceeding 2092.75 through 9:45 would have been helpful. Indeed, the open”s surge probed it by 1 point.
But it wasn”t yet 9:45. By then, quickly reversing under 2090.00 had triggered a sell signal that extended down to 2076.25.
The 2075.50 bias-down signal was probed by 5 points, and not recovered by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. The renewed bias-down target at 2069.75 is in-play.
A bounce has now extended up to the 2080.50 bias-down signal. It is resistance, and back under 2076.25 would target the low”s retest, and the 2069.75 renewed bias-down target. Exiting the bias environment at 2080.50 would negate the renewed target.
Several hours of ranging sideways
Several hours of ranging sideways around this morning”s 2089.75 bias-up signal don”t make it any likelier to trigger at 10:15. Exceeding yesterday afternoon”s 2090.75 high would make bias-up likelier, but still not as assured as actually triggering it 30 minutes later. Exiting the open above 2092.75-2093.50 would be optimal. And, still, the decline from Monday”s high would not yet be reversed.
Graphic details are in this morning”s pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfkyfx
The First Trade… Optimism resurfacing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
This morning”s chaRTroom links:
NOT xp-friendly (ilinc/Mitel)
XP-Friendly (Anymeeting)
— Last night”s candidate test is done —
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open was on its way to recovering from an overnight dip. A Grexit headline retraced the recovery attempt from 2109.25 back down through the 2101.25 pre-open low, falling to fresh lows at the morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target. The morning broke lower to 2090.00, and a noon hour bounce to almost 2097.00 was reversed to 2081.25. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low, and entering the final hour lower.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s drop was partially recovered to 2092.50 before another dip returned to Tuesday afternoon”s 2081.50 low. The dip was eventually recovered entirely back up to 2092.50, and its reaction is now trying to resume the recovery.
If, then…
There”s no “unfinished business below” attracting price lower. But today”s open might make one, a gap back down to yesterday”s ~2083.50 close. Its near-term attraction could become irrelevant if the open were to extend above yesterday afternoon”s 2090.75 high. That could form a bullish “session-long rally” setup. Gapping up without extending would not complete the setup, which could be as bearish as the completed setup would have been bullish.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.75 — and preferably also above 2092.75 — would be likely also to trigger the 2089.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.