S&P
We”re testing “GlobalMeet” for the
We”re testing “GlobalMeet” for the next couple of days (assuming it doesn”t crash repeatedly like yesterday”s test candidate). It seems relatively simply, and clean.
https://gmtrial.globalmeet.com/chaRTroom
When prompted to choose phone or computer audio, choose audio.
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Comment on the Activity Feed if you encounter any difficulty.
Here”s the ilinc/Mitel app if there”s any difficulty:
I”ll launch it this evening between 7-8pm ET.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.75 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2094.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.50 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday”s sellers gained traction. The
Tuesday”s sellers gained traction. The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low, and the final hour was entered lower still. Sellers will be rewarded by having control of Wednesday morning. Typically that means trending down, whether a little or a lot, but not just briefly probing under Tuesday”s lows.
Unless… Last Thursday”s sellers gained traction, too. But they weren”t rewarded. Instead, Friday”s open gapped up above the prior afternoon bias environment”s high. Friday trended up throughout.
Interestingly, the same scenario is being encountered in the same area. Last Friday, the relevant level was 2090. Wednesday, it is 2090.75 — gapping up or immediately recovering it would invalidate Tuesday”s sellers. It could also form a “session-long rally” setup.
There”s no outstanding target below. Oversold RSIs were neutralized. And a second positive divergence was in position to trigger a dramatic decline, but failed. Sellers gained traction Tuesday, but seem shy about exploiting it. The thing is, they can be shy, since the traction is theirs to exploit. So, by the same token, shy sellers made it easier for buyers to negate them… Look out below if buyers are even shyer.
Here”s the link to Tuesday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjmshz
[I”ll post the chaRTroom links for tonight shortly…]
Pre-close view… Is it still a rubber band?
Stretching back down to bounce up has gotten close to breaking.
The 2084.50 bias-down target was met after the bias environment began lapsing, on the way down to 2081.50. It quickly reacted back up to 2084.50, and then down to 2081.50 again.
Simultaneously oversold RSIs diverged positively on the retest. That”s potentially bullish, at least for a bounce back toward the bias environment”s 2090.75 high. Back above the positive divergence”s 2084.50 interim high would be a credible start. It was just pierced, but by only an errant tick.
Not bouncing higher, and instead probing a fresh low first, could be very bearish. Dramatically lower before the close, targeting the 2060.00 area.
The last positive divergence at 2086.00 probed lower without first probing above its interim high. Two such consecutive patterns would suggest much bigger selling pressure coming down the pipeline.
Daily Spot… 30-year meets its first target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday had been the second consecutive pullback session, following Thursday”s confirmed breakout. Tuesday was required to rally, which it did, but not until a deeper dip overnight that was recovered entirely into Tuesday”s open. Closing above 1.1230 would target 1.1315 and 1.1380.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s closing test of 1187.00 resistance was extended overnight to probe above 1194.50 to 1198.00-1200.00 Tuesday. Closing back under 1194.50 would reinstate the decline targeting fresh lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s shallow bounce held 16.65 resistance to avoid suggesting the recovery is yet extending higher. Another dip to 16.50 support is likely, if not lower to retest 16.15.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing the 156-08 target overnight and reacting up into Thursday”s open would have been a credible low, except for the setup in-play that still requires at least a third lower close. Fresh lows tested 155-12, with 154-02 in-play so long as 156-08 isn”t recovered.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight probed fresh highs testing 61.00, targeting 61.75 and potentially 62.45. Meanwhile, the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close has been fulfilled.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down only slightly Tuesday and ranging slightly lower through the day is “ineffectual pessimism.” Rallying immediately Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.