S&P
Tough (to) sell.
Yesterday afternoon”s high held multiple tests as support.
Gapping up to and through yesterday afternoon”s 2090.00 high — which was also this morning”s bias-up target — robbed sellers of a lot of traction.
They could have regained it by not exceeding 2090.00 through 10:15, or after testing the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target, or after retesting 2095.25. Each of those reactions down was deeper and deeper. Each was on the same plane. And each was recovered to a higher high.
This latest recovery took awhile. But as I have been describing in the chaRTroom, hovering at resistance though the noon hour would all but marginalize sellers.
Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour because that”s when the last of big money is done. That”s not equivalent to trending. And this morning”s big money did not produce trending. Exiting the noon hour allowed the session”s character to change.
A surge just sliced through this afternoon”s 2095.25 bias-up signal to 2099.75. This is “no-bias” trending, and it is required at some point to revisit 2095.25, if not also the 2094.25 1:20 print. No-bias trending often does retrace the same day. So, extending higher depends greatly on holding above 2098.00, and extending above 2101.50.
When no-bias trending isn”t retraced the same day, it”s usually because much more no-bias trending lies ahead. This afternoon”s rally still targets 2101.50, and potentially 2109.50-2111.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s reports aren”t high-profile, except for being the only economic news of the day. But they have no track record for influencing price action.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
John Williams Speaks — dove
3:10 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.75 | 2095.25 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.00 | 2086.50 |
| …would target | 2087.75 | 2081.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Early strength attracting weaker sponsorship.
Bias-up renewed, barely.
The open”s surge through yesterday afternoon”s 2090.00 bias environment high opened the door to rejecting the traction that yesterday afternoon”s sellers had gained. That immediately touched the preliminary 2093.50 level, and didn”t exceed it through 9:45, making the bias-up unlikely to be renewed.
It was renewed. Barely — 2090.00 is also this morning”s bias-up target, and the 10:15 bar exceeded it by an entire tick. But the renewed bias-up target at 2095.25 was quickly met, and quickly reacted down 7 points to 2088.25.
The only thing inhibiting a reversal down is that the bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. Having said that, back under 2090.00 (being probed now) could fill the gap back down to yesterday”s 2083.00 close, extend down to 2077.00, and retest yesterday”s 2070.25 low.
Otherwise, having dipped back under both bias-up targets, back above 2091.50 would suggest the dip had failed to gain traction. Higher highs would target 2101.50 and potentially 2109.50-2111.00.
The relatively shallow overnight rally
The relatively shallow overnight rally has attracted sponsorship, steepening ahead of the open. Weak hands, or strong hands? Strong, if yesterday afternoon”s 2090 high is recovered through the open. But failing to hold 2085.00-2086.50 would suggest this late emphasis is from impatient buyers, and that a dive back to yesterday”s 2070.25 low remains likely. Details are in this morning”s pre-market Tour,
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjmfmy