S&P
The First Trade… Recovery day, or recovery failure?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Unfinished business below kept alive the ongoing decline. Wednesday”s outstanding requirement to test 2093.50 was Thursday”s opening print. But that was too late for it to suffice, and had since required also testing 2085.00-2086.50. So, the open”s bounce to 2098.00 resistance was reversed sharply to thoroughly test its new target. Its recovery attempt was reversed into the noon hour, ultimately breaking support to fulfill the next lower targets at 2077.00 and 2070.00. A last-minute bounce to 2083.00 fulfilled near-term buying pressure.
Overnight action”s new info…
While 2082.75 was a near-term target of yesterday”s last-minute bounce, there was also potential to 2086.50. It was eventually met by relatively calm, flat-to-higher ranging. A shallow pullback into Europe”s opens is now being recovered to a fresh high at 2088.00 .
If, then…
Did the Friday Factor already exacerbated the decline by accelerating selling pressures into Thursday? Several major markets are closed today for May Day (China, Russia, Germany, and Singapore). Since sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday — by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low and entering the final hour lower — trending up immediately would require gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2090.00 bias environment high… which is being attacked now. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, triggering bias-up could extend sharply higher through the morning. The alternative would target at least a retest of yesterday”s oversold lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2084.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2093.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2090.00 bias-up target through 10:15. But exiting the open under 2080.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2084.75 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2090.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.50 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2078.50 | 2072.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The market chart is available
The market chart is available overnight at the following links:
Mitel/ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Anymeeting: http://anymeeting.com/051-387-553
I began pointing out on
I began pointing out on Monday different price action that was starting to tell us intraday volatility was heating up. Multiple, wide intraday trending, with reversals. It hasn”t taken long to see the market become all about that. This hasn”t affected the market”s behavior abiding by its ongoing principles. It magnifies those principles into outsized moves. Their substantial reversals don”t measure any differently than under other conditions — they just have more room to extend.
Less volatile times offer the opportunity to get comfortable with the principles, so that they can be applied more naturally during times like this. Times like this can still be instructive, for their outsized moves making the influences and consequences clearer. Please don”t hesitate to ask any questions that can help you to better understand and to utilize the principles. You”re welcome just to monitor for signals, if that”s more helpful.
Thursday”s low fulfilled the extended downleg”s 2070 target. Its reaction up to 2083 fulfilled the target of buying pressure that had formed off the low. So long as the bounce doesn”t extend much higher overnight, oversold RSIs at Thursday”s low should be tested next — where the question would be whether sellers are done, or if we”re trending down sharply into and out of the weekend. Gapping up high enough could still put new highs into play.
Here”s The post-close Wrap recording.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvsvyky
Pre-close view… Well-timed break.
Fresh lows as the bias environment lapses.
Actually, the afternoon”s 2085.00 bias-down signal was probed when the bias environment”s 2:30 lapse came into view 10-15 minutes prior. A drop to 2080.25 has been consolidating, and now it”s probing lower.
Entering the final hour back above 2085.00 would have been bullish. That”s unlikely now.
The next lower objectives are 2077.00 and 2070.00-2072.00.
Popping up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for extending sharply higher into the 3:37 position-squaring window. But only temporarily. And meanwhile, the trend remains down.