S&P
Daily Spot… Natural Gas bottom becoming obvious too soon?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.1160-1.1195 resistance Wednesday didn”t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.1255. The probe reacted down, but spent the day ranging choppily around 1.1195. A bearish Pivot Reversal setup was avoided, but back under 1.1120 would still signal a pullback or something more substantial underway targeting 1.0855.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing under 1205.00-1208.50 Thursday targeted at least 1194.50, but there was no respite in Thursday”s drop that extended down relentlessly to within $2 of last week”s 1174.10 low. The original 1170.00-1174.00 target area is in-play so long as bounces meanwhile hold 1183.00 or at least 1187.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at the 16.50-16.65 resistance range”s upper-end was corrected Thursday by plunging to 15.80. Its recovery was testing 16.15, but not decisively recovering it to signal the decline had necessarily ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s drop down to 158-08 was recovered to test Wednesday”s 158-22 low as resistance, well under what was critical support at 159-14/159-26. Avoiding a decisive second consecutive lower close could still extend down, but I would be careful being long above 160-00.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 59.31 target tested at Wednesday”s high was pierced momentarily overnight and then intraday Thursday. Just avoiding a close back under 57.70 keeps the door open to a fresh high close that can still signal at least 61.75 is in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s reaction down from 2.60 had barely touched 2.55 support when the EIA report triggered a surge that attacked the 2.80 target. The target was never put into play through a close, so the pattern”s next higher target at 2.95 is now likely, so long as pullbacks hold 2.67-2.68 as support. There isn”t much tolerance for dipping much deeper — especially not on Friday, one day following the surge — which would start to suggest 2.49 will still be tested.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Despite being the month”s first Friday, the Employment Situation report is delayed one week. Never mind that, the calendar is plenty busy, with high-profile and influential items.
Loretta Mester Speaks — dovish
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
John Williams Speaks — dove
3:25 PM ET
Hunkered down. And down. And down.
Pessimism took a breather.
This morning”s dive to 2084.50 held two tests — one during an irrelevant timing window, and the other by an errant tick that reacted up immediately on its way to 2096.50.
Not for lack of trying, but the bias environment exit was back under its 2093.50 bias-down signal. Recovering it into the noon hour would have sealed a bottom and reversed up through the afternoon. But dipping into the noon hour”s entry tested 2088.50.
Sellers didn”t regain control. But buyers have been rewarded for absorbing this morning”s dips under 2086.50. Back under the 2088.00 area (being tested now) would start to signal a probe underway of fresh lows. And not isolating it to the noon hour would again risk extending down sharply.
Meanwhile, having failed a timely recovery above 2093.50, exiting the bias environment above 2093.50 would still be bullish, but above 2098.00-2099.00 would deserve more confidence.
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.75 | 2095.25 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.50 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2084.25 | 2077.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Are they through, yet?
Bias-down target met, probed, and held?
The pre-open bounce to 2098.00-2099.00 resistance was repeated post-open, but only to its lower-end. The bigger picture already had made fresh lows likelier than to recover. And back under 2095.00 signaled that to be underway.
A singular effort extended down to fresh lows at 2084.25, satisfying all downside objectives. A bounce to 2089.75 held up above the 2086.50 bias-down target through 10:30, to avoid renewing the bias-down signal
This is still a bias-down environment. Despite not renewing its signal, a fresh low was probed down to 2083.50. Had the signal renewed, the next lower objectives would be 2077.00 and 2070.00-2072.00.
Back above 2087.00 and 2088.50 would be credible for reversing back up. The probe under 2084.25 was isolated between 10:15-10:30, it was within 3 ticks of 2084.25, and its RSIs diverged positively.
Optimal timing would have been to trigger the recovery signals by 10:30. And a fully-formed buy setup that doesn”t actually trigger tends to become as bearish as it would have been bullish. So, look out below if 2087.00 and 2088.50 aren”t recovered soon.