S&P
Doesn”t look like 2086.50 will
Doesn”t look like 2086.50 will be avoided. Not after the pre-open recovery up to 2098-2099 resistance reacted down sharply to attack the 2090.25 overnight low. So, the big question may be whether the retest of Tuesday”s low can be isolated to an irrelevant timing window, i.e. recovered before noon. More detail in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmxfpk
The First Trade… Still seeking out lower levels.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the
chaRTroom here
Still testing
Anymeeting CLICK HERE
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Seeking out buyers at lower and lower levels. Tuesday”s recovery had failed to attract new sponsorship above its 2110.25 intraday high, forcing it to seek out buyers below. Its 2098.00 pullback target defined Wednesday”s open and the bias environment”s low. The noon hour”s dive to 2090.50 was recovered in time to greet the FOMC statement from above 2098.00. Rallying to 2108.00 was a little premature, and the day ended back at 2098.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Europe”s opens again marked a different tenor as sideways ranging until then suddenly broke lower. Yesterday”s low was pierced by 1 tick at 2090.25. Headlines have been active on BOJ, Ruble, and Greek pension payments.
If, then…
Yesterday”s FOMC reaction was inhibited from extending higher, because of excessive optimism during its initial reactions down to 2095.25. It could have been remedied yesterday at 2093.50. Having tested 2093.50 overnight, gapping up today above 2104.25-2105.00 and extending through yesterday”s highs above 2108.00 would serve by proxy for the delay. Otherwise, the delay now requires retesting Tuesday”s 2088.25 low. Too low could start to attract much more substantial selling pressure.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2090.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2093.50 bias-down signal through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2086.50 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing its bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would make the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.25 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2115.50 | 2109.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.50 | 2093.50 |
| …would target | 2092.50 | 2086.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The market is in conflict,
The market is in conflict, and the title holder had better fight back soon, or else he”ll lose his belt. Wednesday”s sellers beat up on buyers again, with another intraday probe under 2090-2095.25. It held again as support, without trending up overly-optimistically.
Two consecutive tests of 2090-2095.25 isn”t as problematic as there having been only a single interim upleg into Tuesday”s close. An opportunity to rally Wednesday afternoon wasn”t exploited. But, like Tuesday”s pattern, the rally can remedy the problem by gapping up and running at Thursday”s open.
And like Tuesday”s pattern, the alternative is another corrective dip. Its potential continues to be a retest of Tuesday”s 2088.25 low, which remains vulnerable to its bottom dropping out. Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkwzpt
Pre-close view… Unrelieved non-rally.
FOMC statement”s time in the spotlight hasn”t been terribly bullish.
A bounce to 2102.00 greeted the FOMC policy statement. That was a 61.8% retracement of the last intraday downleg, including its maximum room for noise.
The knee-jerk reaction down to 2095.25 was retraced to 2103.50. Another plunge down precisely to 2095.25 was again retraced precisely to 2095.25. Did I mention precisely?
Deja vu? Untrustworthy base. Despite its next reaction triggering buy signals that extended another 7-1/2 points, the base wasn”t likely to produce a durable rally leg. In fact, a reaction down just touched 2097.25.
A durable recovery is still likely, but not by that first rally leg. Back above 2101.50 (being pierced momentarily now) would allow the shallower 2097.25 pullback to serve by proxy for the deeper 2093.50. Back above 2104.25-2015.00 could trigger a massive short-squeeze.