S&P
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.25 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2092.75 | 2086.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… A little more ballast than expected.
Post-open dip exceeds its objective before recovering.
The pre-open rally to 2096.00 needed to correct, even in the most bullish scenario. My 2091.50 objective was quickly met, and its test eventually blipped-up to 2094.75. But that was not enough to resume the recovery.
A dive tested the 2088.00-2090.00 range of support, and triggered the 2089.00 bias-down signal. At 10:15, the 2093.00 bias-down target was being attacked to within 3 ticks. That was quick. There was a reason for it being done quickly.
3 ticks is close enough to prevent the bias-down target from becoming “unfinished business below” if not met by 11:30. Having neutralized its target, just returning to 2089.00 by 10:30 all but invalidates the bias-down that it had signaled.
Recovering 2089.00 by 10:30 didn”t recover higher immediately. But then its recovery didn”t stop. The open”s 2096.00 high is being retested now..
Yet another substantial drop that fails to gain traction for its effort. New highs remain likely before any durable downleg can begin.
Ho-hum, S&Ps indicated to open
Ho-hum, S&Ps indicated to open slightly higher. Not surprising, since yesterday”s sellers expended all available energy without gaining traction for the effort… Oh, and another overnight plunge has disappeared.
The 2080.25 low”s Expanding Triangle reversal pattern has played out already, launching a pre-open rally up to 2096. that”s a lot of buying pressure expended near-term, and that”s resistance up to 2096.75, so a pullback to 2091.50 wouldn”t be surprising. It also wouldn”t be too much to ask before considering long-entry. Not holding its test would suggest another probe under yesterday”s lows.
More details in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvzkzy
The First Trade… Another overnight plunge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night”s rally back to last week”s ~2105.00 highs wasn”t repeated intraday Tuesday. Instead, a post-open decline finally bottomed upon attacking 2087.00 during the afternoon bias environment. The session ended between the prior session”s 2091.00-2093.00 futures and cash closes.
Overnight action”s new info…
An extremely narrow 2-point range around 2093.00 suddenly surged at Europe”s opens. Peaking abruptly at 2098.50, and consolidating briefly, then sliding suddenly down to 2093.00 — that was just misdirection. Moments later, a plunge was testing 2082.00, where Sunday night”s plunge was first consolidated. That was 3 hours ago, during which an Expanding Triangle has formed between 2080.00-2087.00.
If, then…
A lot of patterns are at work here, from the overnight failed surge and the plunge segment, to the Expanding Triangle and potential gap down.
The failed surge”s placement occurred at a 61.8% retracement back to yesterday”s pre-open highs, and it”s the most bearish influence, with potential for a fresh low at 2077.50.
The plunge segment”s line in the sand is 2090.75, which is both an attraction to a retest, and a signal to complete recovery.
Expanding Triangles are often reversal patterns, and exceeding its room for noise above at 2090.50 would start to signal the reversal underway, but meanwhile there is room for noise below it to 2077.50.
Gapping down but back above 2088.00-2090.00 — or not gapping down, at all — would be likely to repeat the recent pattern of isolating overnight drops.
So, rallying above 2090.00 through the open, if not already recovered above 2094.00 into the open, would keep the market on-track for probing new highs. Not yet recovering 2089.00 or failing to maintain a probe above it would make a probe under overnight lows likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.25 would be likely also to avoid triggering the 2089.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2096.75 would be likely to trigger the 2095.00 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.75 | 2095.00 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2101.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.75 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.