S&P
Tuesday”s post-open dropped met and
Tuesday”s post-open dropped met and held its objective at 2088. No lower target was put into play. The entire session trended down, which expends a lot of energy. All of that selling pressure expended, without gaining any traction for the effort. And this followed the overnight high”s retest of last week”s highs up around 2105. The pessimism was ineffectual. It”s not as if the rally didn”t deserve a rest, having retraced all of the interim dip down to Friday”s low. So, nothing about Tuesday”s session was bearish — if anything, its action helped to preserve upward momentum. Wednesday”s open would need to maintain a significant break lower to undermine the ongoing potential to new highs. Here”s more detail in Tuesday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfkmtt
Pre-close view… Staying power.
Entering the last half-hour unchanged.
The reaction up from testing the 2088.00 objective did retrace at least 61.8% of the last downleg. And it was retraced before the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. The decline”s momentum lapsed.
But it wasn”t reversed. The last downleg”s 2094.50 origin wasn”t recovered into the final hour. The 3:10-3:20 timing window did nothing. Buyers and sellers aren”t gaining any traction, but they”re also not making an effort.
The slowdown is unnecessary. But it”s instructive. Nothing about it gives sellers any benefit of the doubt. Nor does it prevent trying to extend higher before the close. But at this stage, only closing above yesterday”s 2097.50 high would have any predictive value.
Daily Spot… Bonds chip away at more support
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The dip”s potential to 1.0650 was cut slightly short from 1.0667 by bouncing back to Monday”s 1.0790 high. There is still no actionable pattern.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday was retraced back down to 1194.50, but that was recovered to fresh session highs attacking 1204.00. There is no bullish reason to further delay recovering 1205.00-1208.50, and the next test of 1194.50 would be bearish.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s opening surge back to 16.10 resistance didn”t extend higher. But its reaction down only filled the gap back to Monday”s close — neutralizing its attraction below, and avoiding a lower close that would have confirmed Monday”s break. Closing back above 16.10 would reverse the trend up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday and probing under 164-04 once again limited a surge to less than a one-day cycle. The 163-18 sell signal was tested thoroughly intraday. Its break would still require being confirmed by a second consecutive lower close.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Hovering narrowly at the highs — while US and Iranian battleships come dangerously close to each other — makes the rally very suspect. So would closing under 55.85.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to attack 2.60 must still close higher to confirm a new rally leg is underway. The 2.54 support is unlikely to hold a retest.
Stop digging.
Bias objective met, with plenty of recovery time available.
The question is whether the market will exploit that recovery time. It”s trying.
An offsetting test of this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down signal was put into play by holding a test of the 2098.25 bias-up signal. RSIs improved into testing and retesting it. Its 5-point reaction up is now attacking 2094.00.
And the afternoon”s bias environment is now lapsing.
The bias environment exit would at least signal downward momentum had lapsed by retracing more than 61.8% of the last downleg. That would be back above 2092.00, which is now being probed by more than 1 point.
Entering the final hour above the last relative high could trigger a short-squeeze — that would be above 2094.50.
Today”s post-close earnings are more high-profile than influential (YHOO). They”re unlikely to inhibit rallying. Just getting back through 2095.25 at any time should be unable to resume declining.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
I don”t recall ever seeing an alignment like Wednesday”s three staggered housing sector items.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET