S&P
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.50 | 2096.75 |
| …would target | 2108.50 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Not for lack of trying.
Overnight rally fails to resume.
The pre-open recovery from 2095.25 had eked its way back toward the 2105.25 overnight high. But the open only blipped-up to 2103.50 before reversing back down to 2095.50.
Every minute without recovering from a post-open dip became increasingly vulnerable to extending back down under yesterday”s highs. In fact, the 2098.25 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, and 2091.50 has been touched. Reacting up to 2096.25 is still under yesterday”s highs.
An offsetting test of the 2088.00 bias-down signal is in-play. The 2104.00 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks but not touched, so an offsetting test of the bias-down target is not required.
The no-bias has produced fresh lows since triggering at 10:15. So, the 2088.00 consequence will become “unfinished business below” if not met before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.
Regardless of the failed attempt at new highs, this morning”s pullback remains unlikely to become a bigger downleg.
The pre-open recovery from 2095.25
The pre-open recovery from 2095.25 has been eking its way back to the 2105.25 overnight high. Resuming the rally today shouldn”t take too long to be obvious after the open. So, every minute without recovering from a post-open dip would become increasingly vulnerable to extending back down under yesterday”s highs. More detail is in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvsvbwk
The First Trade… Back to last week’s highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up extended higher to touch the upper-end of its renewed bias-up target at 2095.25-2097.50. Not exceeding it through a relevant timing window prevented putting into play any higher objective. The afternoon ranged choppily back down to 2092.00. A post-close drop extended down to 2089.25.
Overnight action”s new info…
The rally”s resumption was immediate, slowing pessimistically upon attacking Monday”s highs, and then surging through them to a fresh high. That was extended to 2105.25, within 1 tick of last Wednesday”s high. Its reaction retraced 61.8% of the overnight gain back down to 2095.25, consolidating almost three hours back up to 2101.00.
If, then…
Last Wednesday”s late break was considered to be sponsored by weak hands, and it was retraced entirely Thursday. Friday”s much deeper drop was also considered to be weak-handed, and now that has been retraced entirely. Weak-handed sponsorship can produce detours, which by definition are only temporary. New highs remain likely, potentially today, if another detour doesn”t appear. Today, that vulnerability is probably limited to the open holding a test of last week”s highs, if not also falling back under yesterday”s highs
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 abov 2105.50 would be likely also to renew the bias-up signal by exceeding its 2104.00 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2095.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2098.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.