S&P
Perhaps it was pre-earnings jitters
Perhaps it was pre-earnings jitters that inhibited Monday morning”s rally from extending higher during the afternoon. The cash session dipped to 2092.00, which was as deep as possible while still being considered only noise. Post-close action dipped 2 points lower, which was also within its noise range.
Sellers” afternoon efforts didn”t gain any traction by the time it would have mattered. And then they extended the pullback even deeper, expending even more selling pressure, when it was too late to matter. That”s “ineffectual pessimism,” which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Optimally, that bullish resolution would start Tuesday by gapping up above the morning”s high 2097.50 high. An overnight dip could test 2088.00 and then recover 2091.50 to suggest momentum is reversing up already. But opening under 2086.50 would deal a crushing blog to Monday”s recovery, and target a retest of Friday”s low… for starters.
Here”s the recording to Monday”s post-close Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvvrmj
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvvrmj
Pre-close view… Didn’t break it, time to make it.
Afternoon consolidation should be ending now.
The noon hour and bias environment edged lower. But the pattern wasn”t distributive, so there was no sell signal.
The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s 2094.50 low, which was the first time a sell signal was considered. But the sell signal was only touched and not triggered. So the final hour wasn”t entered any lower. Sellers didn”t gain traction after edging lower through two consecutive timing windows.
Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2095.50 high would have been bullish, but that was barely attempted. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to probe the noon hour”s 2096.75 high would be bullish, too. An as that window now opens, 2096.75 is being attacked to within 3 ticks.
If buyers gain traction here, the balance of the session could fulfill expectations for sharply higher highs into the close. But it all depends on extending higher through 3:10-3:20.
Daily Spot… Can crude catch an updraft?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down from Friday”s test of the 1.0855 target didn”t gap down enough Monday to signal the recovery reversing, but also didn”t recover enough to signal the rally had resumed. There is not currently an active signal, but at least a corrective dip to 1.0650 is underway so long as 1.0780 holds as resistance.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of 1205.00-1208.50 resistance reacted back down Sunday to test 1194.50 support, which was still being overlapped Monday and not decisively broken. But having tested and retested it already and already again, if its support were so solid, then it should not require so much testing before launching a recovery. Immediate strength would still be credible for extending higher, but now only back to recent highs around 1225.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap down to 16.10 support extended down to fresh lows intraday testing 15.85, which undermines the near-term recovery potential.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet another single-session surge was retraced to a relevant level with Friday”s rally to 165-19 being retraced Monday morning down to 164-04, and then lower. Closing under 163-18 would re-signal a new downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from May to Jun]… A dip before Monday”s open was too late to gain traction, recovering back toward the recent high. The delay in fulfilling the 59.30 target (basis Jun, 57.90 basis May) is “ineffectual pessimism” that makes its eventual test likely to be probed on the way to 62.45.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s gap down to 2.54 support is the cheapest acceptable pricing for the recovery”s momentum to remain intact. And now there”s a gap outstanding back up to Friday”s close that can help to encourage the recovery to resume.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s calendar is sparse. Redbook”s retail data isn”t usually influential, but a surprise in this vacuum could be magnified.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2091.00 | 2084.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.