S&P
Post-open review… Phoenix, ashes, you get the gist.
Overnight rally has bled into intraday.
If the overnight rally were going to extend today, then there was no bullish reason to delay it much past the open. And it wasn”t.
The opening bar touched the support of this morning”s 2084.50 bias-up target to prevent resuming the pre-open pullback. Its reaction up was steep and substantial. A half-hour later, the market was 10 points higher touching 2094.25.
That was the first time any RSI had diverged negatively. The reaction down to 2090.00 has been mostly recovered. Extending higher would next target 2095.25 (being probed now). Regardless, this is a bias-up environment, renewed by exceeding its bias-up target through 10:15.
The balance of the session could be much more productive than that.
Assuming that this morning”s bias environment continues hovering around 2094.00 highs, the bias environment”s exit would be well-positioned to resume the rally into the afternoon. Resuming the rally, at all, could extend significantly — through 2097.50 would likely probe into the 2100”s.
The pattern is playing out in-line with the pre-open description, which means that I”m not considering sell signal. Exiting the bias environment back under this morning”s 2084.50 bias-up target might be the earliest that a sell signal could be considered.
Thursday”s 2089 pre-open low is
Thursday”s 2089 pre-open low is last night”s high. Recovering it through a relevant timing window would be a critical difference between retracing and reversing Friday”s drop, or just temporarily correcting it. If the bullish WedEX has anything to say about it, then the open should already get that done. Here”s details in the pre-maket Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjjzps
The First Trade… China, Greece, Bloomberg and S&Ps — they’re baaack.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Responding to China”s drop, Greece”s ongoing Grexit and Bloomberg”s outage — and attracted to a retest of Thursday”s 2089.00 pre-open low — S&Ps plunged 15 points in Friday”s early morning hours. The open was greeted by a failed bounce that extended the drop another 18 points through the afternoon bias environment, totaling 34 points from Thursday”s close. The last timing window rallied 12 points to retrace almost all of the afternoon”s portion of the drop.
Overnight action”s new info…
China rallied sharply in reaction to easing bank reserve requirements. Greece may be getting $5 billion from Russia. And, Bloomberg hasn”t gone dark again. Sunday night”s open gapped up 5 points, and eventually added another 8 points to pierce 2089.00 by 3 ticks. That”s a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement back to Thursday”s high. And it is now reacting down to test 2083.00.
If, then…
Was Friday afternoon”s recovery enabled by the bullish WedEX expiration indicator? Then its influence on Monday morning should be aggressively bullish. Gapping up is irrelevant to the indicator — trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would be highly reliable for trending up through the morning. By the same token, trending down through the open would invalidate the signal, if not invert it, in either case being attracted down to fill the gap back to Friday”s close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2084.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be less likely to exceed the bias-up target in time to renew the signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/18/15) — Was Friday’s drop just a one-off?
A funny thing happened on the way to retesting prior highs… Greece makes “not-news” on Grexit, China makes real news with short-selling, and Bloomberg terminals prevent even reading the news. Result? Traders scramble for the exits ahead of weekend illiquidity. Can the upside resume, how, and how to recognize it almost immediately, are just three questions answered in this weekend”s Saturday Review (linked below). Also, stock chart analysis requests! (OXIS, MU, STX, ADM, PCAR, LRCX, KR, DG, ALV, GOOGL, FB, NFLX)
NEW! The recording was made in MP4, with superior audio quality, and accessible by a variety of platforms:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E159DD82814B
Here”s the older format if you experience any difficulty:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthhbrm
We don”t need no stinkin”
We don”t need no stinkin” Bloomberg terminals…
This weekend”s Saturday Review begins in one hour at 9:30 ET. We”ll review market scenarios, and your stock chart analysis requests. Log-in anytime at
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy