S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Four Fed speakers in a row Thursday, which means “duck!” The day”s econ reports are high-profile, but probably not surprising so probably not influential. Except for the Philly Fed survey, which is the only Fed survey that can move markets.
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
(WED) 7:30 PM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks — dove
1:00 PM ET
Stanley Fischer Speaks — hawk
1:00 PM ET
Loretta Mester Speaks — centrist
1:10 PM ET
Eric Rosengren Speaks — dove
1:30 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2108.75 | 2102.00 |
| …would target | 2114.00 | 2107.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2093.25 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED ABOVE BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Get the picture?
Opening surge holds its ground.
Pre-open gains had extended to 2099.25, but reacted down again into and out of the open. The opening bar blipped down quickly to pierce the 2094.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction up extended to a fresh high at 2102.25.
That”s 1 point above Monday”s high. It was probed after 9:45, so not yet exceeding it doesn”t undermine the trending attempt. Pullbacks are still likely to recover.
But sellers aren”t marginalized. Pullbacks aren”t required, but they”re not avoidable. The 2100.50 bias-up target was met already, but this is still a bias-up environment.
Maintaining the gap up above yesterday”s highs, and not yet reversing down from Monday”s highs, suggests that more market participants are becoming bullish, too. So long as 2094.50 holds as support, the next higher objective is to probe above 2107.50 to attack 2111.00.
Higher and higher highs are
Higher and higher highs are greeting the open, but still ranging around the 2097 preliminary indication level. The resolution to its test through 9:45 would be predictive to the 10:15 bias timing window. Extending higher aggressively post-open would be credible for attracting new sponsorship. A post-open dip would get a benefit of the doubt… and a limit.
Recording of the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmmwcb
The First Trade… Gapping up through headwinds.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s sell-off from 2101.25 bled into Tuesday”s session, thoroughly testing the maximum 2076.00 pullback limit. Two timing windows failed to break lower, and the second window was exited in rally mode. The noon hour”s 2092.00 high was consolidated through the afternoon, perhaps inhibited ahead of post-open earnings. Buyers didn”t gain traction for their efforts.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s consolidation bled into the overnight, trading flat-to-lower within Tuesday afternoon”s range. One hour after Europe”s opens a surge probed above Tuesday”s range to 2095.00. That has since extended to 2097.00..
If, then…
The rally was likely to resume today, and the rally”s resumption was likely to begin by gapping up. But gapping up does not ensure the rally is resuming. Already trading 5 points above yesterday”s high is testing 2097.00, important resistance that was Monday morning”s support and eventual sell signal. Post-open testing of relevant resistance requires exceeding it through that timing window”s exit, or else a reversal down would become likely — even if only as a temporary correction. It is possible to expend too much buying pressure to be sustainable, which would be “ineffectual optimism.” There is a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, but we”ll still be prepared for signs that new sponsorship isn”t being attracted. Bank of America (BAC) just announced earnings and the ECB just announced policy, neither having an effect on S&Ps. Mario Draghi”s press conference will begin soon, a centrist Fed speaker is scheduled pre-open, and a hawk is scheduled post-open. Until the bias timing window triggers at 10:15, we”ll still give dips a benefit of the doubt to be recovered.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2097.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2094.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2103.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2100.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.