S&P
Was anxiousness ahead of INTC”s
Was anxiousness ahead of INTC”s post-close earning responsible for inhibiting an afternoon recovery? That can happen during earnings season, and we”re definitely in it. But if the market intended to extend the recovery from its morning drop, and the impending earnings caused that recovery”s delay, then resuming the rally should compensate for the delay. This means surging immediately if not gapping up Wednesday.
Meanwhile, buyers gained no traction for Tuesday afternoon”s efforts. Resuming the rally immediately should begin by surging immediately or by gapping up.
Also, the correction from Monday”s high to Tuesday”s low fulfilled the lowest pullback limit. Literally, as much selling pressure as could be expended without gaining traction has been expended. So, there is no excuse for delaying the rally”s resumption.
The first condition makes a rally likely to begin aggressively. The second condition makes a rally likely to begin aggressively if it begins at all. And the third condition makes not rallying aggressively bearish.
Barring surprising dramatic news that must be absorbed, this resolution should be obvious almost immediately Wednesday, one way or the other..
Here”s the recording of Tuesday”s post-market Wrap (take-two, since take-one encountered some sort of technical difficulty):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzzjxp
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.25 | 2094.50 |
| …would target | 2107.25 | 2100.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2090.50 | 2083.75 |
| …would target | 2084.50 | 2077.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot… Euro bouncing from support, Crude Oil teasing.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above Friday”s ~1.0650 highs has room up to 1.0845-1.0855 so long as 1.0615 now holds as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday was recovered enough to fill the gap back to Monday”s close, but that was retraced to close back under 1194.50 support. Or, at least, still testing its support. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher. There is otherwise potential down to 1181.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s probe under 16.02-16.10 support was recovered through the close. Back above 16.45=16.60 would signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up sharply to 163-29 Tuesday proved that Monday”s opening sellers were impatient and weak-handed. Extending higher proved that Friday”s 61.8% resistance required a retest. Extending intraday to 165-26 probed the last three surge peaks without closing above any of them.. But reacting back down to 1640-08 support stopped just short of proving that buyers were absorbed so the decline could resume. Back under 164-04 would now be the nearest sell signal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh recovery highs attacked 53.75. Stopping pessimistically short of touching last week”s ~54.00 high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday didn”t extend more than a penny above Monday”s 2.54 high, ranging narrowly sideways around it through the afternoon without creating any new signals.
Pre-close view… Did the last seller drop?
Closing higher would confirm.
The afternoon”s no-bias environment was triggered only ticks away from its 2089.25 bias-up signal. Often, that leaves an entire bias environment carte blanche to drop as low as its bias-down signal.
That wasn”t expected in this instance. The bullish template would not stray far from resistance while waiting for the bias environment restraint to lapse. In fact, the bias environment”s 2-point 2087.00-2089.00 range barely pulsated.
The bias environment”s exit did dip momentarily to 2085.75. The bullish template considers that to be the rubber band stretching, so it can snap back up.
Now the final hour has been entered probing higher to 2090.75. That”s a start, but it”s not enough. The bullish template all but requires trending up through the close — at least above yesterday”s 2092.75 final hour high, if not also above yesterday”s 2096.50 noon hour high.
Ending any lower would remain vulnerable to resuming yesterday”s decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers Wednesday keep things lively. The housing sector report can be influential. But the afternoon”s Beige Book has a better track record for influencing price action.
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
(TUE) 8:00 PM ET
ECB Monetary policy announcement
7:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks — centrist
9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks — hawk
10:40 AM ET
**Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET