S&P
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/11/15)
This weekend”s Saturday Review gives an overview of relevant price action and influential patterns that explain how the market got here, where it”s probably heading, and how to know otherwise.
We also reviewed the Euro, Gold and Crude Oil markets, then stock chart requests from attendees. The chat that accompanied it is below… Click here for the recording.
Mark : gm
c d: hi0
Miss Kitty: Here. Good morning.
David : Morning
duan : gm
julie : gm
Mark : is an old pattern of surging above prior high very briefly & starting a big downleg still possible but no longer likely?
Mark : higher to whatever degree
Mark : ok
julie : car-t conference coming up
c d: intc
julie : Blcm TRIL
julie : biotech conference. related to cancer break thrus
julie : EW and BIIB showed showed some evidence of breaking out. watched them this week pretty careful. do u see any accumulation patterns?
c d: tks
julie : fairly recent Ipo but md”s love it
julie : md”s also love love loveit
julie : they got $$$ so that might be in the mix
julie : yes. big $$ thrown at stuff they like i notice
julie : ty
Miss Kitty: What is the bigger picture on th chart for bonds?
tamara : I got here late so if you have done theseI can review the recording. RIG, ALXN, ABX,KING, OIL, GOLD
Miss Kitty: Thanks.
tamara : NLNK upside target
julie : actually gapped up on break thru in alzheimers. then the related sector
julie : got hit with a market pull back.
julie : they had v. good news for their trials and that = that gap up
julie : EW also same. v. good news on their heart valve break thru. market in general took it back almost immediately
julie : fairly thin. big bid/spreads in the orders
julie : ty
tamara : thanks Rod
tamara : Thanks Rod
julie : ty rod
Link to this morning’s live Saturday Review
UPDATE: You missed it! Email me for its recording. Enjoy the weekend!
What”s the 411 on this rally effort?
Get it — 411? It”s a double entendre for directory assistance AND for today”s date, April 11.
Unless, of course, you”re in Europe, where the number for directory “enquiries” begins 118, and date formats are day/month. So, Europeans won”t know the
411 118 until 11 August… China”s date formats are also day/month, but the directory assistance number is 114. China prepared for this day. Which, I suppose, explains a lot.
Anyway, I”ll see you this morning at
9:30am ET for this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the 411 on this week”s bookends of an S&P rally, breakout and confirmation. We”ll also get the 118 on the Euro sitting at big support, while Crude Oil and Gold are trying to resume their recent rallies. Then we”ll get the 114 on your stock chart analysis requests.
Follow this link up to one half-hour before 9:30am ET:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Friday factors kept price ticking
Friday factors kept price ticking higher into the close, albeit only back to the previous hour”s high. But Thursday”s breakout was confirmed by a second consecutive higher close, so an eventual third higher close is now required — at least a third… We”ll discuss the consequences and likely paths for next week”s open at tomorrow”s Saturday Review. Meanwhile, here”s a couple recordings:
1. https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvvhzs
[today”s post-Market Wrap]
2. https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthhpfv
[this week”s Training Session on Timing Windows]
Pre-close view… Sellers squelched, buyers burnt.
Blip-up blaps-down.
Friday factors make it nearly impossible to reverse trending that hasn”t yet reversed during the noon hour. Extending trending isn”t so assured.
The bias environment did probe this morning”s high by 2 ticks, piercing 2095.00. Its reaction down to 2092.25 was done when the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.
That was recovered to another fresh high touching 2096.00. But the final hour was entered back under the 2095.00 prior high. Structurally, that”s potentially bearish. Maybe not very bearish, dealing on the small scale of this afternoon”s range, but not bullish.
Rejecting a fresh that prints AFTER the bias environment exit is less bearish than rejecting a fresh high that printed DURING the bias environment. But, again, it”s not bullish. And its reaction down touched 2092.25.
Extending down should still be limited, if at all, due to Friday factors. But extending above 2095.00-2096.00 is now more difficult.
Daily Spot… Euro meets target but won’t let go, while Gold triggers buy signal
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline extended Thursday night and fulfilled the likely objective at 1.0585. A bounce there Friday morning was retraced entirely back to its lows. There is no unfinished business below, but there is also no upside momentum.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying Thursday night from the original 1994.00 buy signal greeted Friday”s open by gapping up to the next buy signal at 1205.00. That extended higher intraday to probe its 1208.50-1213.00 confirmation range.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night”s rally greeted Friday”s open already back within the 16.45-16.60 range whose support had failed to hold earlier in the week. Probing above the range”s upper-end momentarily was reversed to probe back under its lower-end, missing a chance to signal that momentum was reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday night”s rally recovered that afternoon”s negative reaction to the monthly 30-year auction. That represented a 61.8% retracement of the cumulative drop from Wednesday”s high, and its resistance pushed back, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday”s close — and optimism is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A fresh low Friday before rallying would have been optimal to finishing out a bottom. At least Friday open did blip-down to 50.08 attacked Thursday”s low before reacting back up. Perhaps it was the usual pre-weekend geopolitical risk premium that enabled the balance of the session to firm back up to Thursday”s high. Regardless of why, a second, less fungible requirement seemed to be fulfilled by ranging around 51.45 — not to become too optimistic before the weekend.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A second consecutive lower close Friday confirms Thursday”s break under prior lows as now requiring at least an eventual third lower close.