S&P
How the rally might leverage today’s Friday factors.
Ranging sideways at this morning”s high.
This morning”s noN-bias environment extended higher to within 1 tick of the 2095.00 bias-up target as the bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour”s low wasn”t much lower at 2092.25.The afternoon”s bias environment began with a dip down to 2091.50.
Essentially fulfilling the target, not extending higher in awhile, narrow ranging through an entire timing window, and a sell-off attempt. Sounds dangerous.
Perhaps.
Meanwhile, the dip down to 2091.50 was actually a blip-down which recovered back to within 1 tick of this morning”s high. Consolidating there for 15 minutes instead of at least probing higher does reflect pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. And this being a Friday, whose morning bias environment trended up to fresh relative highs, printing higher highs during the afternoon bias environment can just extend, and extend, and extend…
One caveat is that probing a fresh high during the bias environment can be bearish if the bias environment were exited back under the noon hour”s 2092.25 low. But that was tried already, and presumably failed.
Don”t underestimate the power of two days of impending illiquidity. A Friday afternoon is a tough time to be fighting the trend.
How the rally might leverage today’s Friday factors.
Ranging sideways at this morning”s high.
This morning”s noN-bias environment extended higher to within 1 tick of the 2095.00 bias-up target as the bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour”s 2092.25 low The afternoon”s bias environment began with a dip down to 2091.50.
Essentially fulfilling the target, not extending higher in awhile, narrow ranging through an entire timing window, and a sell-off attempt. Sounds dangerous.
Perhaps.
Meanwhile, the dip down to 2091.50 was actually a blip-down which recovered back to within 1 tick of this morning”s high. Consolidating there for 15 minutes instead of at least probing higher does reflect pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. And this being a Friday, whose morning bias environment trended up to fresh relative highs, printing higher highs during the afternoon bias environment can just extend, and extend, and extend…
One caveat is that probing a fresh high during the bias environment can be bearish if the bias environment were exited back under the noon hour”s 2092.25 low. But that was tried already, and presumably failed.
Don”t underestimate the power of two days of impending illiquidity. A Friday afternoon is a tough time to be fighting the trend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 13 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
A very slow week for economic reports begins appropriately with no reports, at all.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
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Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.75 | 2095.00 |
| …would target | 2107.50 | 2100.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.00 | 2088.25 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2083.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.