S&P
Post-open review… Better late than never.
Verrry sloooow to resume the rally.
The pre-open surge may have been no more than a reaction to GE”s buyback announcement. Regardless, dipping into and out of the open reacted back down to 2084.50.
That”s back under yesterday”s 2087.00 high, so trending back up would have to be the product of new sponsorship. In fact, fresh highs are being probed now up to 2093.25.
But the fresh high”s new sponsorship is only weak-handed, because the 2089.00 bias-up signal triggered “noN-bias” (being overlapped at 10:15, and at 10:30). A bias objective isn”t attracting price higher, and won”t inhibit reversing down.
Yesterday”s late breakout was sponsored by weak hands, too. So, the path need not be down, but extending higher can be choppy. If not for the weekend”s impending illiquidity, sellers might not be so patient. But reversing into negative territory will be unlikely if the bias environment”s exit at 11:30 isn”t already trying to break back under yesterday”s high.
The Globex session”s late strength
The Globex session”s late strength has retraced back down to yesterday”s highs. If the initial pop was only in sympathy with GE”s buyback announcement, then the rubber band will snap back down through the open. Extending the rally requires attracting new sponsorship… fast. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthhpvv
The First Trade… Confirmation’s moment of proof.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The prior high”s retest that began Monday finally broke higher Thursday. But not before one more failed rally required a recovery. That was the morning”s post-open surge to its 2081.25 bias-up signal, which was retraced to its 2069.00 and 2067.00 objectives as “no-bias trending.” The balance of the session rallied 20 points to a fresh high at 2087.00, barely gaining traction for the effort.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sideways ranging between 2083.00-2087.00 only recently began probing higher. It”s not a “new Globex trend extreme,” but there is complexity at 2089.50 and now 2090.50.
If, then…
Yesterday”s rally gained traction only after the bias environment”s exit. Its sponsorship is not the strongest hands. Gapping down today under yesterday afternoon”s lows could have invalidated it, but that now seems unlikely. Gapping up would be vulnerable if its immediate reaction down were not quickly absorbed. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. So, triggering bias-up or not can be the difference between extending the rally intraday or else dropping back into the week”s range… By the way, closing higher today would confirm yesterday”s breakout. As bullish as that could be near-term, it is the reason why today”s early momentum can”t yet be taken for granted.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2089.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2083.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2096.00 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2102.00 | 2095.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.25 | 2079.25 |
| …would target | 2081.75 | 2074.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Careful what you ask for…
Careful what you ask for… Thursday”s late-afternoon breakout did almost everything it could to be credible. The final hour was entered above the bias environment”s high, and the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended higher. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high would have been more credible, and it”s the only reason that the 3:10-3:20 timing window”s behavior is even relevant.
Regardless, price definitely rallied to fresh relative highs. Buyers were due some sort of reward for 3-1/2 sessions of recovering drop after drop, and any further delay would conditioned them not to bother defending against the next drop. The recovery from last Friday”s payrolls drop to retest last week”s high should deserve extending to the prior highs.
So, almost everything possible by Thursday”s close was done to confirm buyers are the stronger hands. Having gained traction, the rally can afford an opening dip back into the afternoon”s range to test 2077.50. But one thing can still undermine extending higher which is to gap open under Thursday afternoon”s 2075.25 low.
REMINDER: TRAINING SESSION TONIGHT
AT 6PM ET IN THE CHARTROOM AT
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Here”s the link to Thursday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzzhpm