S&P
Pre-close view… noN means noN.
noN-bias environment is lapsing, leaving a vacuum.
This afternoon”s 2077.50 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. It was still being touched at 1:30 to avoid triggering bias-up or no-bias.
The bias-up target wasn”t put into play, and the bias-up signal wasn”t required to hold. The bias parameters became irrelevant. It was a noN-bias.
Often, the tested bias signal will hold, anyway, during a non-bias environment. As did 2077.50. Then a surge probed above it as the bias environment began lapsing.
And now a fresh high is being probed up to 2080.50 at the final hour”s entry. The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour”s range. So, trending higher through the 3:10-3:20 window is needed to confirm a durable breakout is underway.
Daily Spot… Bearish bond pattern breaks lower
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday night”s slide into Thursday”s gap down tested uptrending support at 1.0750. It wasn”t acknowledged as price slid lower to 1.0650, fulfilling the minimum third lower close outstanding from the confirmed breakout coming out of March. Having refueled sellers with the high”s retest, extending lower to 1.0590 before bouncing would not be surprising.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The pullback extended lower Wednesday night and Thursday morning, testing the original 1194.00 buy signal, which was still being tested through the afternoon. There is no bullish excuse for further delaying the rally”s resumption, which should be aggressive, and triggered as low as 1205.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s drop under the original 16.45-16.60 pullback limit wasn”t rejected immediately Thursday, and instead probed lower, potentially targeting 16.05.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Any rejection of Wednesday”s return to 164-30 resistance had to be done aggressively if it were to be credible. Thursday”s dip back to the 163-18 low — and then through it after a disappointing 30-year auction — did extend down at a steeper pace that easily qualifies the characterization. The bearish pattern remains on-track.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s drop may be likely to recover and resume the rally, but it was too sizable to try recovering too quickly. In fact, Wednesday night”s bounce to 51.90 fell back to 50.60, as did a slightly higher high to 52.05 intraday. It”s still premature to resume rallying, but a slightly lower low Friday morning could be compelling for long-entry before the weekend”s geopolitical risk premium is added.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, but it wasn”t necessarily weakness. In either case, the reaction did probe fresh lows, and close lower. There is no active signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
The week starts off its last session by absorbing what is likely to be an endorsement of hiking rates sooner rather than later. The dovish noon hour speaker won”t necessarily contradict that. Fridays are difficult days to absorb news.
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks — hawk
8:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
12:20 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.50 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2083.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.00 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2061.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Fallen, and keep getting up… or, else.
Open”s surge reverses to fresh lows, now trying to recover.
The open”s surge to the 2081.25 bias-up signal reversed back down to the 2072.50 open. Ranging sideways through the 10:15 bias timing window triggered no-bias. A blip-down then attacked the 2071.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick.]
Being a no-bias environment, the bias-down signal should have defined the range”s lower-end. I expected that, but I also expected “no-bias trending” — an interim probe under the bias-down signal that would visit 2069.00 and possibly also 2067.00.
[In my previous blog update, I misidentified the bias-down signal. I apologize for any confusion that caused.]
The probe visited both. And the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 back at the 2071.25 bias-down signal. That has extended up to 2075.00. Any higher would confirm new sponsorship had arrived, presumably to retest or attack this morning”s high.
Otherwise, having repeatedly absorbed sell-offs without yet being rewarded with new relative highs, dipping back under 2070.50 at this stage would likely indicate that buyers have been expended, allowing a new downleg under this week”s lows.