S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Globex is open during Friday morning”s Employment Situation report. Although we won”t have a Market Tour, the chaRTroom will be open and I”ll be outlining the movements.
Markets Closed, Banks Open
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
8:30 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Holiday drift.
Renewed bias-up gives up its ground.
Exiting the 10:15 bias timing window above the 2060.25 bias-up target renewed the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target at 2068.75-2070.50 is not a requirement if not met before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. And now it”s not even in-play after entering the noon hour under the 2060.25 bias-up target.
The 2057.50-2058.50 pullback limit had produced bounces back to 2060.25. But it wasn”t recovered, and the noon hour”s entry is dipping to 2053.50. The next lower support under 2054.50 is 2050.50.
Sponsorship for trending is difficult to attract on the afternoon before a three-day weekend. It”s also difficult to attract sponsorship to stop trending if it were to resume. Either this is the range”s lower-end at 2054.50, if not 2050.50, or else a deeper slide back to and through the 2044.00 overnight low becomes possible.
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.75 | 2063.00 |
| …would target | 2076.25 | 2068.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2061.50 | 2053.75 |
| …would target | 2055.75 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… All its troubles are so far away.
Yesterday”s sellers are done.
Expectations during the pre-market Tour were for any trending likely to begin early, and to be aggressive. If that trending were going to be up, then it was likely to be up a lot. Up so much, that the bias-up signal would likely be renewed by also exceeding its bias-up target at 10:15.
The open did contain a 5-1/2 point surge from 2048.75 to 2054.25. That was just a warm-up for the 10-point surge launched by its consolidation up to 2063.00. And that was probed by almost 2 more points to attack 2065.00.
Essentially, this is the recovery back above Tuesday”s lows that Wednesday couldn”t do.
Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the high require its retest. The renewed bias-up target is 2068.75-2070.50. My 2058.50 pullback objective is being tested now. Back above 2061.25 would start to signal the rally has resumed.
A deeper pullback to test 2057.50 is possible. Volume should start to disappear this afternoon ahead of the three-day weekend. So, dipping any deeper too much later could end today”s rally instead.
Yesterday”s mid-day range contained overnight
Yesterday”s mid-day range contained overnight action, and this morning”s open is indicated in the middle of it. Whichever way this morning were to trend, it”s likely to start aggressively and early. Not trending aggressively, early? Then probably not trending this morning, which would merit fading a test of one end of the range, for its return to the other end. Personally, I”m rooting for trending… Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfbypx