S&P
REMINDER #1: I”ll be in
REMINDER #1: I”ll be in the chaRTroom during tomorrow”s Employment Situation report. Before and after it, too… REMINDER #2: Being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Review…
Thursday”s open rallied early and aggressively, then substantially. And then it was done. It served the purpose of creating room to absorb selling pressure, without that selling pressure gaining traction. And there was selling pressure. But the selling pressure only tested support momentarily before reversing back up to a prior high.
Buying pressure was otherwise restrained, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. It doesn”t get any benefit of the doubt either way ahead of an Employment report. But a knee-jerk reaction down will need to take out 2045.00 to begin making a downleg possible. Closing above 2064 — or above 2070.50 if tested — would be bullish.
Happy Easter and Happy Passover!
Here”s the recording of Thursday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybryzv
Morning Bias
NOTE: FRIDAY”S DROP HAS RENDERED THESE LEVELS MOOT… PLEASE CHECK THE BLOG FOR THE NEWER POST.
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above |
2071.50 |
2064.00 |
| …would target |
2078.00 |
2070.50 |
| Bias-down: under |
2062.00 |
2054.50 |
| …would target |
2055.50 |
2048.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
|
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… No surprise, no trending.
Narrow, choppy and sideways ahead of the holiday.
Volume and participation evaporate ahead of most three-day holiday weekends. That was one factor which contributed to expecting the open”s trending to be substantial. The delayed recovery from Tuesday night”s dip had only a small window of opportunity, and a long way to go.
It got there.
The morning”s renewed bias-up signal doesn”t require fulfilling its target like a simple bias-up, but it”s a target. And it doesn”t marginalize sellers altogether, but it does minimize them.
So, sellers have been unlikely to regain control, while buyers haven”t been much likelier to exert any more control. A window has opened at 3:37, in the form of the position-squaring window. Getting through 2060.75-2061.25 and 2063.00-2064.00 could tick higher to 2068.75-2070.50 through the close.
Otherwise, there”s no requirement to tick higher at all, and little likelihood of ticking down.
Daily Spot… Crude holds up, bonds push back.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s bounce that attacked 1.0855 still had room to test 1.0900 just as a correction. Thursday took advantage of that room, now presumably ending its correction before resuming the decline to its 1.0700 target.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning”s dip wasn”t recovered entirely, so Wednesday”s breakout close wasn”t confirmed. That”s not bearish, but this early stage of the rally won”t tolerate much further delay in resuming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the prior week”s gap Wednesday without closing above it had left the pattern vulnerable to a reaction down, which it did since Thursday”s open didn”t immediately extend higher. Another lower close would undermine the last pullback”s recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s probe above 164-30/165-08 was tested as support Thursday, and then probed down to 164-16. Closing under 164-30/165-08 would start to signal the probe above prior highs was forming a Double Top likely to resolve down well under its interim low.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s narrow ranging around 48.75 was still being tested at the close, not high enough to confirm Wednesday”s breakout. Probing lower in reaction the Iran deal was recovered back above 49.25, suggesting the breakout would be extended. But the recovery attempt won”t tolerate much more delay in resuming.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, since Wednesday was a new low close. But as I described during Wednesday”s post-market Wrap, the new low close wasn”t necessarily a position of weakness, since it fulfilled the delayed requirement of a recent breakout. That did allow a favorable reaction to EIA Thursday morning, surging back above prior lows to 2.72, leaving no unfinished business below.
Daily Spot… Crude holds up, bonds push back.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s bounce that attacked 1.0855 still had room to test 1.0900 just as a correction. Thursday took advantage of that room, now presumably ending its correction before resuming the decline to its 1.0700 target.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning”s dip wasn”t recovered entirely, so Wednesday”s breakout close wasn”t confirmed. That”s not bearish, but this early stage of the rally won”t tolerate much further delay in resuming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling the prior week”s gap Wednesday without closing above it had left the pattern vulnerable to a reaction down, which it did since Thursday”s open didn”t immediately extend higher. Another lower close would undermine the last pullback”s recovery.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s probe above 164-30/165-08 was tested as support Thursday, and then probed down to 164-16. Closing under 164-30/165-08 would start to signal the probe above prior highs was forming a Double Top likely to resolve down well under its interim low.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s narrow ranging around 48.75 was still being tested at the close, not high enough to confirm Wednesday”s breakout. Probing lower in reaction the Iran deal was recovered back above 49.25, suggesting the breakout would be extended. But the recovery attempt won”t tolerate much more delay in resuming.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, since Wednesday was a new low close. But as I described during Wednesday”s post-market Wrap, the new low close wasn”t necessarily a position of weakness, since it fulfilled the delayed requirement of a recent breakout. That did allow a favorable reaction to EIA Thursday morning, surging back above prior lows to 2.72, leaving no unfinished business below.