S&P
Mid-day Update… Pessimism slowing.
Clinging to fresh lows.
The morning’s aggressively bearish influence persisted through the bias environment lapsing into the noon hour’s 2686.50 low. The drop from the 2731.25 open had tried bottoming once from 2706.50 before extending in another downleg.
Ranging relatively narrowly sideways since then is now entering the afternoon bias environment back at session lows. And testing this afternoon’s 2691.00 bias-down signal. Triggering the grace period at 1:20 has avoided resolving down, still overlapping the bias-down signal at 1:30 instead of triggering.
This is not a no-bias, whose lower-end should be defined by its bias-down signal. It’s also not a bias-down that should test its bias-down target.
However, its 2784.25 bias-down target was met anyway. And so far, it is holding. Having originated from a relatively narrow range, it’s easier to reject and recover the break, which would be signaled back above 2792.50 (being tested now). There’s otherwise no requirement to reverse or to extend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week is pushing most of the high-profile reports into Wednesday. Tuesday’s two pre-open reports have no reliable track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2704.25 | 2705.25 |
| …would target | 2711.25 | 2712.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2690.25 | 2691.00 |
| …would target | 2683.50 | 2684.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… No buyers.
Pre-open drop struggles to hold.
The quasi Globex-flip setup did test its 2729.00 earlier Globex low post-open. But the level held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to avoid triggering the setup. 
Neither was it rejected decisively, and it did require ignoring Friday’s noon hour high. So, its resolution may not be bearish for failing to form.
But the open’s resolution was bearish, anyway. Two inflection points at 2734.00 and 2732.25 held bounces, each time their errant ticks resolving down to a fresh low. And the second resolution has been very productive:
This morning’s 2727.75 bias-down target, and its 2720.75 renewed bias-down target are both met. But probing them down to 2716.00 was recovered back above 2720.75 through 10:15 to avoid a doubly-renewed bias-down. Still being a bias-down environment, and having simultaneously oversold 1-min and 3-min RSIs at the low, fresh lows are now testing 2710.25.
Already meeting its targets doesn’t affect whether this is a bias-down environment. The bearish WedEX may be aggressively productive for the next hour, regardless of only absorbing post-open buyers, and despite not actually trending down through 9:45.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Volatility blips.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted near the lower-end of overnight ranging at 2719.00, ranging that had broken lower temporarily down to 2709.00. The recovery extended during the morning to probe above Thursday’s 2736.50 highs, and then dipped. A noon hour probe to higher highs attacked 2749.00, and then dipped. One more probe above Thursday’s highs got to only 2745.00, and then dipped, but recovered back up to 2745.00. Closing at or above Thursday’s highs avoided rejecting or invalidating Thursday’s bottoming pattern, but didn’t quite confirm that momentum was reversing up. The bearish WedEX influence was nominal, holding under the noon hour’s highs, and the last dip retesting the bias environment’s entry.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was greeted by two negative news items, as both US-China trade and PM May seemed to be falling apart. Gapping down under Friday’s last dip touched 2729.00 as a narrowing range formed around this morning’s 2734.00 bias-down signal. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens attacked Friday’s highs up to 2748.00, but only briefly. And only temporarily, now having retraced the surge back down to attack 2730.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s borderline bearish WedEX influence is enough for initial post-open selling pressure to be credible for producing bearish behavior until this morning’s bias environment lapses. No immediate post-open bearish behavior wouldn’t necessarily be bullish, but should be, since earlier overnight weakness would have failed to attract reinforcements. Regardless, morning trending in either direction would remain vulnerable to reversing direction through the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2731.75 would be likely to trigger the 2734.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2741.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2744.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2746.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.