S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2743.00 | 2744.00 |
| …would target | 2749.75 | 2750.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2733.25 | 2734.00 |
| …would target | 2727.00 | 2727.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s open recovered from an overnight slide, and probed above Thursday’s highs 2-3 times. The 2736.00 close was at or above Thursday’s highs to avoid rejecting or invalidating Thursday’s bottoming pattern. But Friday’s close did not qualify as confirmation that momentum has reversed up. Given that overnight sellers failed to exploit the opportunity of breaking under 2709.00, reversing up intraday to attack 2749.00 suggests that sellers are weak-handed. But further bullish behaviors are needed since that intraday surge also neutralized upside attractions without putting into play anything new. Meanwhile, still testing the afternoon bias environment’s 2736.00 entry wasn’t decisively bearish WedEX influence, but neither was it decisively rejected. So, any immediately bearish behavior Monday would still be credible for trending down aggressively through the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet resolving down by Friday’s open kept the door open to extending the corrective bounce for a test of the original 1.1400 sell signal, which was probed intraday up to 1.1445. Closing above 1.1480 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but otherwise closing back under 1.1400 would once again target recent lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending the bounce into Friday fulfilled its 1222.00 corrective bounce target and tested “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap up to 1226.00. Closing back under 1220.50 would start to signal the bounce was failing, and targeting a retest of 1201.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already extending higher overnight was able to test its 14.36 corrective bounce target Friday morning, up to 14.40 in the afternoon, also testing “higher prior lows” and filling a gap. Closing back under 14.25 would signal a retest of recent lows and lower underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down had not broken under any relevant support, keeping alive upside momentum that enabled retesting Thursday’s high on Friday morning. The rally resumed up to 139-20, now needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm a more durable rally is underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had only prevented a favorable knee-jerk reaction from extending, but didn’t prevent extending higher anyway overnight into Friday morning up to 57.95. Regardless, Tuesday’s plunge all but requires a retest or probe of its 54.75-55.55 lows before any durable bottom could form, which became much more obvious as the morning’s gap up was reversed by $2 to probe negative territory down to 56.90.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only a slightly lower low overnight down to 3.90 preceded Friday’s flat-to-higher ranging, which retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s post-open range up to 4.35. Extending the pullback from Wednesday’s high would next target 3.80.
Mid-day Update… One way or another.
Attraction above neutralized, just in time.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 2738.25 bias-up signal was met at this morning’s high.
Its reaction down could have been shallow and/or brief, but it was deep — down to 2721.50 by noon.
Ultimately, a surge up to 2748.75 fulfilled the offsetting test of this morning’s 2745.50 bias-up target. The surge there was triggered by a Trump tweet on China trade, but it didn’t require extending so high.
Anyway, now this afternoon’s bias environment has begun, and a bearish WedEX influence is likely. The noon hour’s surge has been retraced already down to 2724.75, largely retracing the tweet’s origin, and all of the 2727.25 buy signal that it had triggered.
Friday afternoon’s Bearish WedEX can be shallow, too, and usually is. Regardless, price action should be biased downward through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speaker John Williams is pretty busy Monday. And he’s the session’s only influence other than two low-profile reports due post-open.
*John Williams Speaks
9:40 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
10:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:15 PM ET