S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming out of the weekend doesn’t qualify as rejecting Thursday’s collapse. Not until closing above the 1.1320 buy signal, which was attacked throughout Monday afternoon.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday fulfilled the (absolute) minimum requirement for at least probing a fresh low intraday before a bottom could be credible. Sunday night’s bounce to 1282.00 was on its way to being retraced entirely through Monday’s gap up. But the 1293.50 buy signal is lowered to 1289.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Once again probing the 15.00 buy signal overnight but not triggering it keeps alive the potential for a break higher, but not indefinitely.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce up to “higher prior lows” had gained no traction, so Sunday night’s dip was credible for resuming the decline still targeting 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 15-cent premium to May]… Geopolitical events triggered an overnight surge that fulfilled the 65.15 target to within 1 penny of 66.00, still being likely at least to attack its room for noise up to 67.15 so long as pullbacks now hold 64.35.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows into the weekend — even Thursday’s fresh lows, into a 3-day holiday weekend — should probe a fresh low Monday. Regardless, no nearby buy signal is allowed until at least probing a fresh low intraday.
Mid-day Update… Pushing on a string theory.
Flat-to-higher ranging around unchanged.
Opening at this morning’s bias-down target held the 2899.00 pre-open low. Its reaction held 2-3 test of Thursday’s 2908.50 cash session close. An extremely narrow 2-3 point range since noon has fluctuated around 2908.50.
If this morning’s bearish setups were at all influential, then it is in their ability to restrain a recovery. Recovery has been the market’s natural state since the open, however restrained and now gradual it has become.
The market is expending a lot of buying pressure with diminishing immediate returns. The difficult task is to get away from unchanged at Thursday’s close, which isn’t just natural resistance or support but also an attraction.
Extending higher gradually into the bias environment lapsing might only stretch the rubber band to snap back down into a collapse. Otherwise, all of this chipping away at resistance should almost literally explode higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 23, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s report is typically either high-profile or has a reliable track record for influencing price action. But the recent ongoing slump in existing home sales creates the potential for surprise if any other similar metric reflects strength. And Tuesday has two housing sector reports.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2908.75 | 2911.75 |
| …would target | 2915.75 | 2918.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2902.50 | 2905.50 |
| …would target | 2895.75 | 2898.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-downers out?
Bias-down target’s support, recovers to bias-down signal — which won’t let go.
Gapping down to 2900.00 spent several minutes in a 2-point range at 2899.00-2901.00, touching the pre-open low while also overlapping the 2900.25 bias-down target.
Then a surge developed that ultimately probed the 2906.00 bias-down signal up to 2909.00.
Bias-down triggered at 10:15. A bounce overlapped it at 10:30, but didn’t recover it, so bias-down was maintained. Bias-down, target met. Another test of the 2900.25 bias-down target is in-play. Already having tested it, it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.
First things, first. The 2906.00 bias-down signal keeps attracting price back up to it. Most recently by a surge now attacking the open’s 2909.00 high.
The context of this being a bias-down environment makes any recovery suspicious. The bearish Globex flip’s context, too. Even if ultimately extended higher, at least a dip back down to 2906.00 would be required (unless exiting the bias environment above its 2914.25 bias-up signal). But the surges probing above 2906.00 area are aggressive, and should take precedence over staying short.