S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2932.25 | 2935.00 |
| …would target | 2940.00 | 2942.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2925.00 | 2928.00 |
| …would target | 2917.75 | 2920.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Reinforcements arrived.
Pre-open breakout restrains itself to maximum effect.
Having ranged sideways overnight, breaking out either way 60-90 minutes before the open would have been considered a false break. 
In fact, the range’s 2914.75 upper-end was probed by 2 points before 8:30.
Soon the breakout retraced back into the range. The breakout could have extended further before allowing the retracement consequence. Instead, optimism was restrained. A shallower pre-open probe above 2914.75 also retraced back into the range, through the open. The overnight range’s ill-timed breakout problem was negated. No further pullback is required.
The first 3 post-open minutes contained the pullback, and the balance of the hour has trended up to attack 2924.00. Last Wednesday’s 2923.00 gap up above all prior highs is filled, although it wasn’t required since its first minute had also overlapped “lower prior highs.” Hesitation just under 2923.00 was “ineffectual pessimism,” as was the immediate reaction down to finally piercing 2923.00. Both are potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective… and now 2924.50 is being tested.
Meanwhile, the bias-up signal is renewed for having exceeded its 2920.25 bias-up target through 10:15. The renewed bias-up target in-play is 2926.50-2928.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Help wanted: Effective optimists.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s gap down tested 2899.00 and soon recovered back up to being unchanged from Thursday’s 2908.50 close. Ranging narrowly flat-to-higher out of the bias environment still continued overlapping 2908.50. Finally breaking free in the last half-hour surged to 2912.75, just enough for Monday not to be a clean “inside day.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Although Monday’s late surge to 2912.75 was largely retraced before the close, it was immediately extending just a little higher to 2915.00 after the close. That only stretched the rubber band, as an even deeper retracement soon extended down to 2908.00. Its reaction only attacked 2915.00 before dropping back down to 2909.00 through Europe’s opens — which continues to be tested as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Fluctuating overnight around yesterday’s close may seem neutral, but its underlying optimism is preventing Monday’s late surge from reversing down. Not yet extending higher isn’t surprising, as was noted at the time, the internal breakout’s timing reflected weak-handed sponsorship. Not so weak-handed that it can’t attract reinforcements, but so weak-handed that not attracting reinforcements would face the likely consequence of retracing yesterday’s recovery from 2899.00. At least. Extending higher this morning without delay would confirm yesterday’s late breakout attempt, targeting fresh highs at 2926.50-2928.00. Meanwhile, having only ranged sideways overnight, the timing of breaking out from the range will be predictive. Regardless of direction, breaking out within 60-90 minutes of the open tends to be false, at least initially if not also ultimately.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2911.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2914.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2906.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2911.75 | 2914.75 |
| …would target | 2917.25 | 2920.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2903.00 | 2906.00 |
| …would target | 2895.00 | 2898.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s reaction to gapping down and testing 2899.00 had gravitated back up to being unchanged from Thursday’s 2908.50 close. The afternoon only ranged narrowly around 2908.50, finally breaking free in its last half-hour. But even then the surge to 2912.75 was mostly retraced, essentially leaving an “inside day.” Regardless, the late internal breakout attempt may prove valid, if confirmed by extending higher Tuesday without delay. Otherwise, the pattern probably cannot tolerate much more than the slightest, briefest pullback, if only to attack Monday’s 2899.00 low. Extending higher would target fresh highs at 2926.50-2928.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.