S&P
Mid-day Update… Found them, yet?
Pause in decline might be a bottom. But only if…
The open’s collapse from 2777.00 to 2754.00 had not bounced until the bias environment was entered. 
It measured 8 points up to 2762.00. And then it collapsed. Fresh lows at 2733.50 produced a second bounce as the bias environment lapsed. It measured twice, gaining 16 points into the noon hour’s 2749.00 high.
The second bounce is now also failed, retracing its origin and probing fresh session lows by 1 point.
But it’s too late to trigger bias-down. Probing under this afternoon’s 2736.25 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment is called “no-bias trending” and will require eventually being retraced to the 2736.25 signal, regardless of the interim or ultimate resolution.
In fact, its dip is already retraced, and reversing to attack this afternoon’s 2746.50 bias-up signal.
“No-bias trending” rules would apply in either direction, requiring being retraced. But not necessarily reversed. Resuming the decline is still possible, as is reversing it — especially when the bias environment starts lapsing at 2:30.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar has no post-open econ reports, only a Fed speaker with limited track record for influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2745.75 | 2746.50 |
| …would target | 2754.00 | 2754.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2735.25 | 2736.25 |
| …would target | 2727.75 | 2728.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still digging.
Probing fresh lows, but not stopping.
The overnight rally up to this morning’s 2795.50 bias-up target had reacted back down under the earlier Globex low to 2768.50. 
A pre-open bounce greeted the open at this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal.
A blip-up to 2777.50 reacted down sharply. And relentlessly. No meaningful bounce developed until filling the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 2754.50 cash session close.
The bounce quickly peaked at 2762.52 and soon reversed back down to fresh lows. “Lower prior highs” in the 2751.00 area are being under 2744.00. RSIs are again simultaneously oversold.
Two consecutive sessions trending in negative territory have fulfilled the objective to probe negative territory, if not also under Friday’s lows. That’s the first step to ending the multi-session decline. The second step is to recover a relevant level through a relevant window. Relevant levels to the lower prior highs now being tested include that session’s 2754.50 cash session close, its 2759.25 futures close, the last bounce’s 2762.25 peak, etc.
The trend otherwise remains down, threatening to develop into a new downleg retesting two-week old lows, and deeper.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Crossroads ahead.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2793.00 opened the door to lower targets at 2781.00 and potentially 2764.00. Both were met, the latter to within 2 ticks as the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. That was the limit for a pullback, and any lower would have begun reversing the two-week old corrective rally — which was avoided already by delaying the test of 2793.00 until Friday. Surging as the bias environment lapsed came within 2 points of the 2793.00 open. Its resistance pushed back down to 2781.00 at the cash session close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last gasp, or foreshadowing? Globex has told two stories, one of which developed entirely before midnight. Sunday night’s open had initially dipped several points to test what is this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal by several ticks. Its reaction rallied 21 points to within 1 tick of what is this morning’s 2795.50 bias-up target. Then its resistance started telling a different story, which has is back in negative territory and attacking the earlier low. If today’s cash session fulfills its potential to probe and then recover from negative territory (described below), then last night’s highs have established a likely objective.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Three or four important features from Friday tell us what is likely to be this morning’s template. Most prominent is Friday being the second consecutive session spent exclusively in negative territory, and then also that this persistent weakness had avoided retracing back under a prior low. This is a lot of selling pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. Also prominent is that Friday satisfied selling pressure at its targets, which were recovered on a closing basis. So, no lower objective was put into play. Two consecutive trending sessions tend to persist into the third, which tends to reverse the trending. So, whether it be an attack on fresh lows this morning or their probe, or a gap up that trends down, the burden of proof would be on sellers to maintain their break through a relevant timing window — and under a relevant level. Absorbing a morning sell-off should be rewarded by launching at least a retest of Wednesday’s highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2772.25 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2781.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.