S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tueday’s jobs opening report is one of the week’s few that is potentially influential, depending on the degree to which it contradicts or reinforces Friday’s payrolls.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2737.25 | 2737.75 |
| …would target | 2748.25 | 2748.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2720.25 | 2720.75 |
| …would target | 2713.00 | 2713.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Backing off of backing-and-filling.
Post-open surge collapses, for awhile.
An extended narrowing range had finally broken higher after Europe’s opens.
It extended to 2729.50 but retraced back to the overnight range’s 2720.00 upper-end. The rally repeated into and out of the open, extending higher to 2733.25. That also reversed back down, this time to fresh lows at 2717.00.
Along the way, the 2728.50 bias-up signal held its test through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2709.50 bias-down signal. A fresh post-10:15 low has helped to confirm.
None of which is preventing a bounce, currently attacking 2728.00. Almost any higher for almost any longer would start to signal fresh highs in-play.
Meanwhile, the 10-point bounce is more likely oversized for having dropped 16 points high-to-low, and 2726.75 resistance (being tested now) is likely to hold. Back under 2723.25 would start to signal the bounce was done, and the drop has resumed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking off in time?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Favorable China trade war news triggered Thursday night’s 35-point surge from 2731.00. Its optimism could be added to Thursday’s pre-close optimism, a last-minute break higher above afternoon ranging, without gaining traction, ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. And now there was optimism ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report. Even more optimistically, AAPL’s negative reaction was largely ignored. So, greeting Friday’s open at 2751.00 extended down sharply to probe its target by several ticks down to 2699.50 as the noon hour ended. Bouncing to 2728.00 ranged sideways into the 2722.00-2724.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending narrow ranging has finally broken out. Is it a false break? Sunday night’s open had immediately slid 9-11 points to attack 2713.00, and then to test it. A 7-point range up to 2720.00 persisted through Europe’s opens before finally breaking. Now a 3-hour old rally is starting to probe above Friday afternoon’s highs, and probing this morning’s 2728.50 bias-up signal by 1 point.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s slide was by definition a surprise, as the overnight rally was reversed from well into positive territory to deeply negative. Turning a 28-point gain into a 28-point loss expended a lot of selling pressure, but no traction was gained from the effort as the two prior sessions’ lows held a brief afternoon probe. So, converting Friday’s drop into a new downleg all but requires resuming this morning to fresh lows, or resolving down after shallow backing-and-filling this morning. Initially backing-and-filling this morning also describes a recovery’s early stages. And overnight action doesn’t currently indicate resuming the decline, not unless the bias-up signal were to hold a post-open test and trigger no-bias, or its current test is already reversing down pre-open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2730.50 would be likely to trigger the 2728.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2728.00 | 2728.50 |
| …would target | 2736.00 | 2736.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2708.75 | 2709.50 |
| …would target | 2700.25 | 2701.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.