S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2905.00 | 2908.75 |
| …would target | 2910.75 | 2914.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2895.25 | 2899.00 |
| …would target | 2890.25 | 2894.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was Wednesday a massive paradigm shift? That might seem to be the message being sent by the 19-point collapse from its 11-point gap up. But the the impending 3-day weekend’s illiquidity could be as much of a catalyst, exacerbating the ongoing intraday distributive pattern. Regardless, collapsing from 2923.50 down to 2904.50 before the 10:15 bias timing window is bearish behavior, as much as extending down to 2898.50 through the afternoon’s bias environment. But the burden of proof is on sellers, either to maintain the reversal into Thursday or to absorb an intraday bounce.
Their chances are mixed. One reason for carrying the burden of proof is that outside days like Wednesday often expend more energy than they can sustain. That could be neutralized by a morning bounce before retaking control in the afternoon. Also, the expiration week WedEX signal was bearish — passive bearish, having held tests of resistance. The setup still requires afternoon weakness to confirm, which could also fulfill the burden of proof.
Already trending down overnight would find “lower prior highs” offering significant support at 2892.00-2894.00. Already bouncing would find only sporadic resistance at 2911.00 and 2914.50 before fresh highs become likely. Any early support or resistance test before the weekend can be very predictive for the afternoon pattern.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the overnight dip was barely dismissed for delaying the rally’s resumption. Its complete recovery overnight gapped up to compensate for the delay. But not extending higher intraday Wednesday once again is barely dismissed for not extending the rally. Fresh highs into the weekend would be appropriate for the ongoing inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s flat-to-lower ranging didn’t reject Tuesday’s break under prior lows, but neither did it confirm a new low close would be required. Only an intraday fresh low would be required before a buy signal can trigger.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still fluctuating sideways while momentarily piercing the 15.00 buy signal doesn’t prevent the decline from resuming. Optimally, a recovery would be underway into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday was the last day of a four-day sequence that alternates a break lower with a non-confirmation session. So, Tuesday’s second break lower wasn’t confirmed Wednesday. More so, Wednesday first probed a fresh low, so recovering positive territory starts to suggest buyers are arriving. The pattern’s pullback still targets 145-24.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s API wasn’t greeted from a position of strength. It was greeted by firming overnight to fresh recovery highs since last retesting the 63.20 pullback limit. The ultimate resolution was to retrace overnight gains. But momentum didn’t reverse down, keeping alive the nearby 65.00-67.00 target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s confirmed breakout had required at least an eventual third lower close before any buy signal could be confirmed. Wednesday’s continued downtrending has already produced it. The session began by gapping down under all prior lows, so a bottom cannot form on Thursday.
Mid-day Update… Down, but out?
Still scraping session lows.
Having held a test of the 2906.50 bias-down signal this morning, an offsetting test of its 2914.50 bias-up signal was put into play. 
With a lot of caveats. It was a late signal, the bias-up signal had been tested already, actually both bias-up parameters had been tested and rejected.
But the late no-bias was still good for a bounce up to 2911.00. And the 2906.50 bias-down signal held until the bias environment began lapsing. Then it was probed into the noon hour down to 2900.75. That’s within 1 tick of Monday’s low.
The afternoon bias environment signaled no-bias. Its 2903.75 bias-down signal is being tested now as support, and should define the window’s lower-end like this morning’s 2906.50 bias-down signal did for its window. Probing lower prematurely would required being retraced, but the decline is free to resume unimpeded by 2:30.
Bouncing would still target 2914.50, although its test isn’t required. And probably also the 2923.00 opening print, although it can remain unfilled without impeding a decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 18, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Philly Fed is the only Fed survey with a reliable track record for influencing price action. That might be masked Thursday as it is released among two other high-profile reports, one of them also being reliably influential. So, Thursday’s open should be greeted with volatility. And any noticeable reaction to the pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports, of which two are also reliably influential to price action.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET