S&P
Mid-day Update… Another spring.
Morning bounce collapses, almost. Recovers, almost.
This morning’s 2751.75 bias-down target recovered back up through the 2769.75 open to attack 2775.00. 
That’s 23 points, which its 20-point reaction down almost retraced entirely.
And now this afternoon’s 2773.00 bias-up signal is being probed by fresh session highs to attack 2777.00. But it’s too late to trigger bias-up, so its test is likely to define this window’s upper-end.
Probing the 2773.00 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment requires being retraced, if not also reversed back down. But not necessarily today. Dipping back to 2773.00 when the bias window starts lapsing could resolve in either direction — reversing back down, or resuming the rally. Back under 2769.25 would start to signal the resolution is down.
Resuming the rally is possible, because a multi-session Ascending Triangle is forming. A false break higher is possible, and would target the 2800.00 area or higher, while still being likely to resolve down to new lows. Full-blown recovery is still not being considered.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The delay in JOLTS is interesting, as it usually comes the week following Employment Situation report. Confirming or contradicting the payrolls miss could duplicate or retrace the original reaction. Tuesday’s other reports are neither influential nor high-profile. High-profile quarterly earnings continue, including IBM and MS.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2770.50 | 2773.00 |
| …would target | 2778.75 | 2781.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2758.50 | 2761.00 |
| …would target | 2850.50 | 2753.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hope keeps springing.
Overnight drop largely retraced, then not.
Sunday night’s drop to 2745.25 was greatly retraced to attack 2769.00 before the open. The open, itself, was greeted at the 2762.75 bias-down signal. 
Blipping-up 7 points to 2769.75 was reversed just as quickly, but then choppily, more than 18 points down to 2751.25.
That’s essentially the 2751.75 bias-down target. The 2762.75 bias-down signal had triggered cleanly along the way, so its minimum requirement is met.
Reacting up sharply to 2765.00 retested the 2762.75 bias-down signal as resistance. Which it still is, regardless of whether its target has been met. Which it was. Recovering the bias-down signal by 10:30 could have invalidated the bias-down signal. Which it wasn’t.
Resistance at the 2762.75 bias-down signal is so far holding. Recovering it at the bias environment’s exit would be bullish, at least for probing Friday’s highs above 2780.00. Otherwise, the decline is free to resume. And exiting the bias environment back at its lows could resume the decline in a very big way.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Weaker.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s close under the critical 2749.00 level wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive close on Friday. But neither was it rejected, bouncing overnight to 2784.50 and only to 2779.25 at Friday’s opening high, both under prior highs. So, the downtrend remains intact. Friday’s 2732.25 low essentially filled the gap back to within 2-3 ticks of Thursday’s close. Its bounce peaked within 2-3 ticks of the open’s 2779.25 high to within 2-3 ticks. The bounce would be bearish had Friday probed a new low, but the burden of proof of a bottom forming remains on gapping up Monday, to avoid another intraday downleg.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly extended to 2757.00, retracing at least 61.8% of Friday’s late rally. Trending down overnight has extended to 2745.25 where Friday’s late rally originated. That has reacted up 14 points to 2759.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Clearly not indicated to gap up, and immediately rejecting Friday’s late rally, a morning downleg is likely. Objectives range from a probe under Friday’s 2732.25 low (which we already consider unstable if retested) to retesting oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2712.25 low (which risks also breaking 2709.00 to launch a more substantial meltdown). Somehow recovering to avoid trending down this morning would still face significant resistance at Friday’s ~2780.00 highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2766.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2762.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2758.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2749.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2751.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.