S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s fluctuation around Monday’s close didn’t spend much time at unchanged. The morning’s two opposing trending attempts were never equaled intraday, let alone exceeded. But volatility persisted through the close. The market has widely opposing opinions and it is trying to express them all.
That’s usually the recipe for a exploding in one direction or the other. No traction was gained either way Tuesday afternoon. So credible trending Wednesday morning would begin by gapping pen.
Gapping up above Tuesday’s 2900.00 high, not, there’s room up to 2914.00 before signaling the trend has reversed up. Just closing above Friday and Monday afternoon’s 2895.00 highs would at least indicate a bottom has formed. Gapping down to and through Tuesday’s 2879.00 low would all but ensure retesting Monday’s 2866.00 low, and then probably also 2850.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday gapped down again and immediately stopped trending down again, retracing back into the prior day’s range again. But unlike Monday, the open’s gap down under all prior lows to 1.1495 remains open and all but requiring being filled from above before a credible rally could begin. The trend otherwise remains down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s chippy open eventually firmed into positive territory, not reversing Monday’s drop or even probing above Monday’s post-open high, but also not producing a second consecutive lower close that would have confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range. Extending the decline Wednesday should begin without further delay to be credible for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Tuesday tested “higher prior lows” at 14.40, bouncing again off of the attack on uptrending support that had halted Monday’s drop. Breaking under 14.27 would be credible for extending the decline intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows overnight down to 136-15 confirmed that no bottom has formed over Monday’s government holiday. A new trend extreme precludes triggering a reversal signal on the same day. Extending Tuesday’s intraday bounce above its 137-24 high to also recover 138-04 would start to signal momentum reversing up. The downtrend meanwhile remains intact.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery back above its 73.90 pullback limit / sell signal was extended overnight, but only to attack the 75.30 buy signal, which must still be recovered through a close to reinstate the 78.10 target above.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to the 3.11 pullback limit had needed to resume the rally without delay, which Monday did by rallying to fresh highs attacking 3.30. But the rally began by gapping up sharply, creating a new attraction below back down to Friday’s close. Maintaining the rally Tuesday required extending higher without delay, too, but probing higher overnight to 3.37 was still retraced before the open and only ranged narrowly sideways intraday. A corrective dip has become likelier than extending the rally near-term.
Mid-day Update… More trending to come?
Wide swings reflect opinions being expressed.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 2899.50 bias-up signal was met very quickly after being put into play. 
An hour remaining in the bias window didn’t make the rally any likelier to extend higher, not when the no-bias environment is likelier to remain within its bias signals.
Reacting down 13 points to 2886.50 was recovered back up to within 2-3 ticks of 2899.50. But its 18-point reaction down was deeper to 2881.50.
Now a shallower recovery has triggered the afternoon’s 2890.25 bias-down signal. Its 2884.50 bias-down target is being retested now by 1 point.
Extending any lower would next target 2880.50 and 2877.50. And then yesterday’s 2866.00-2867.75 lows. And probably lower — which an afternoon drop would make likelier for being less capable of attracting counter-trend sponsorship.
Today is becoming a critical day for the decline’s momentum. Two prior sessions have recovered intraday dips, but too shallowly to reverse the trend back up. Today’s recovery probed a prior high, but hasn’t maintained it. If recent lows didn’t satisfy sellers and/or attract strong-handed accumulation, the the next area for both would be 2850.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is the day’s only reliably influential report. Curiously, JOLTS is scheduled for next week, despite usually following payrolls this week. So, be aware that it may be released at 10:00, and its surprises are reliable for influencing price action… which is more possible for this report (whether released this week or next) since JOLTS might be contrary to Friday’s Employment Situation report miss.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:15 PM ET
*10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2900.50 |
| …would target | 2904.00 | 2909.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2885.25 | 2890.25 |
| …would target | 2879.50 | 2884.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.