S&P
Post-open Review… Tried, tried again.
Overnight and post-open dips trap shorts.
The overnight slide eventually reached 2874.50, 20 points under the overnight high. The open was greeted at this morning’s 2885.00 bias-down signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ranged widely (and wildly) between 2879.00-2888.50.
2885.00 was recovered through 10:15 to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2899.50 bias-up signal. A fresh high between 10:15-10:30 confirmed the signal, and also made its test likelier during the bias environment.
Actually, 2899.50 was met during the next breath. It was tested and retested while RSIs worked off an overbought condition. Now its reaction down is attacking 2889.00, and anything lower would target 2885.00. While being likely to hold as support, its break could resume the decline.
Closing above Friday’s late 2895.00 high would start to signal a bottom is forming. But closing above Friday’s early 2914.00 high is still needed to signal the trend reversing up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still in the woods.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday was defined by two big intraday recoveries, albeit from only one new low. The first drop had developed mostly overnight, and extended momentarily post-open down to 2878.00 — 12-16 points under Friday’s close and still above Friday’s low. It was recovered to attack Friday’s close. The second drop was almost 28 points down to 2866.00, 7 points under Friday’s low. It was also recovered to attack Friday’s close. Two big recoveries, and still in negative territory. Closing back above Thursday’s 2887.75 low for a second consecutive session was constructive, but not a reversal signal. And gaining traction through the afternoon windows wouldn’t be reliable.
Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow sideways ranging down to 2889.00 never probed positive territory, and persisted until Europe’s opens approached. Then the range started breaking lower, and lower. A brief consolidation has now resolved down to fresh overnight lows at 2876.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Monday afternoon’s traction wasn’t influential overnight, leaving this morning, but gapping down isn’t helping. “Unfinished business” left from Friday at 2990.25 remains outstanding above, while Monday’s new unfinished business below at 2880.50 has been neutralized overnight. Testing it is vulnerable to also testing 2867.75, and oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2866.00 low — and then to extending the decline to 2850.00 unless rescued by the attraction to unfinished business above and yesterday afternoon’s upside traction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2883.00 would be likely to trigger the 2885.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2874.75 would be likely to exceed the 2877.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2899.50 |
| …would target | 2903.75 | 2907.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2881.00 | 2885.00 |
| …would target | 2873.25 | 2877.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday included two attempts to extend the decline from last week’s highs. Both were ultimately retraced back above prior lows — Friday’s 2873.25 low and Thursday’s 2887.75 low — but not back above a prior high. The nearest prior high is Friday afternoon’s last-minute attack on 2895.00. It was being attacked at Monday’s close, after the 2890.00 cash session close which was also Friday’s cash session close.
Big intraday recoveries, twice, but not yet reversed up.
Perhaps traction from Monday afternoon’s rally can reverse the trend up. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour higher, then trending up through the proxy window. Overnight and/or Tuesday morning should trend up. I’ll want the confirmation of gapping up, since Monday’s session developed exclusively in negative territory.
“Unfinished business” left from Friday at 2990.25 remains outstanding. Add to it unfinished business below at Monday afternoon’s 2880.50 bias-up signal. Both are the product of no-bias trending that has yet to retrace. Each can be neutralized overnight, or left outstanding indefinitely. Testing the lower attraction first would be vulnerable to also testing 2867.75, and oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2866.00 low — and also vulnerable to extending the decline to 2850.00 regardless of unfinished business above.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s inside day didn’t end the decline’s momentum, let alone reverse the confirmed breakout back up after Thursday had fulfilled the decline’s minimum objective. With the decline’s momentum intact, Monday’s open gapped down under all prior lows and ranged narrowly sideways .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing and testing the 1202.30 sell signal through most of last week seems to be compensating for the break’s delay by gapping down Monday to 1193.00 and extending down intraday to 1186.00. The gap back up to Friday’s close will want to be filled eventually, but the 1172.50 remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Monday rejected last week’s ranging around 14.65 and under uptrending support at 14.55, but still requires closing under 14.25 to confirm momentum is reversing down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s Bank and Government holiday sapped both participation and volatility from the market, where narrow ranging formed an inside day that doesn’t reverse the prevailing downtrend.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing off of the 73.90 pullback limit Thursday had stopped short of reversing momentum up above 75.30. Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows attacking 73.05 was already bouncing into Monday’s open, but still stopped short of recovering the 73.90 pullback limit.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping further Friday had held the 2.12 pullback limit which required resuming the rally without delay to avoided reversing the trend down. Gapping up Monday extended to fresh highs that tested 2.29, creating new room for only a corrective dip down to 2.23.