S&P
Mid-day Update… Down, and down.
Fresh lows holding.
Tests of both 2881.50 and 2888.00 bias-down parameters were tested and recovered through 10:15. The recovery extended to attack 2893.00, but no higher. In fact, momentum reversed down.
And down.
What could have been a temporary corrective pullback down to the 2881.50 bias-down target suddenly collapsed 15-16 points to 2866.00. The bias environment was exited under the bias-down target and under the open’s lows, invalidating the morning’s bias signal — and its upside attractions.
Ranging back up to 2875.00 barely avoided triggering bias-down under 2867.50. Although the drop hasn’t extended, it has persisted. This morning’s fresh lows could have been isolated by entering the noon hour above prior lows, but now isolation requires exiting the bias environment above a prior high, like 2884.50. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s Fed speaker is the only influential econ event for the day, being both high-profile and reliably influential to price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2876.50 | 2880.50 |
| …would target | 2882.25 | 2886.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2863.50 | 2867.50 |
| …would target | 2857.50 | 2861.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging out of a hole.
Overnight dip somewhat recovers.
The 2882.50 overnight low had stopped 1 point short of this morning’s 2881.50 bias-down target. Then it was tested by an opening dip to 2878.00. Both were easily recovered through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to at least suggest sellers weren’t gaining traction.
And this being thinner holiday volume, trying and failing to extend down would likely default to bullish. So the reaction extended up to 2893.00. Both bias-down parameters were recovered to signal no-bias, putting into play offsetting tests of both 2900.25 and 2907.50 bias-up parameters.
Currently a pullback is attacking 2885.00. Back above 2889.25 would start to signal upside momentum remains intact. Meanwhile, a dipping under 2888.00 is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced, unless the bias environment is exited under its 2881.50 bias-down target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The disappearing bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had kept overnight action range bound, wide and choppy between 2900.00-2915.00. The report’s volatile reaction still greeted the open flat at 2906.00. The relative calm was a trap, luring in buyers to try resuming Thursday afternoon’s recovery. The trap was sprung at 2914.00, which reversed down to slide 41 points to 2873.25 into the afternoon bias environment. The drop ignored the morning’s no-bias environment to extend under the morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment. The afternoon’s bias-down target was neutralized to within 1 point and RSIs weren’t oversold. Bouncing 21 points into the final hour up to 2874.50 then ranged sideways into the weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially popped-up to 2898.25, but then soon dipped 10 points to attack 2888.00, which is this morning’s bias-down signal. The range persisted, bouncing again to its upper-end, and reversing back down to greet Europe’s opens back at the range’s lower-end. But the retest didn’t hold as the reversal extended down to 2882.50. Now a bounce probing 2888.00 is reversing back down, too.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
“Unfinished business” from Friday morning’s no-bias trending under 2900.25 might not be retraced this morning if there’s another overnight low under 2882.50, especially under 2777.00. Holding a retest of Friday’s 2873.25 low should be isolated, either overnight or to the morning to prevent a more substantial downleg. Friday’s close avoided a more substantial downleg by closing back above 2879.00. The next lower objective would be 2850.00, retracing the leg prior to the month-old rally. The only path to avoiding downside pressure this morning may require no less than to open in positive territory — not as an Isolation setup, but to indicate that the thinner Columbus Day trading is inhibiting sellers. Meanwhile, keep in mind its thinner holiday trading will make trending difficult to start, and then difficult stop.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2891.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2888.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.