S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is incredibly busy. And yet only one item is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. That’s the day’s first, Durable Goods, and it’s released simultaneously with a couple other high-profile reports. Any reaction to them is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. Among them is a Housing sector report, where data have begun softening.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2925.75 | 2930.50 |
| …would target | 2931.25 | 2936.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2917.50 | 2922.50 |
| …would target | 2912.50 | 2917.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Alley cats in a burlap sack.
Volatility contained, but not constrained.
Second time wasn’t a charm. The overnight rally to 2928.75 was in proximity to gap up above yesterday’s 2928.25 noon hour high. 
Like yesterday’s overnight rally, it would have resumed yesterday afternoon’s late bounce this morning.
And like yesterday’s overnight rally, it fizzled. Also similarly, the open was greeted slightly positive.
Unlike yesterday — not that it matters — today’s setup inserted a bounce before ultimately extending the pre-open reversal to lower lows. That bounce attacked this morning’s 2926.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. Its reversal to lower lows touched this morning’s 2921.25 bias-down signal.
So, this is a no-bias environment. And having touched the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is in-play. Aaand, it’s met. An uninterrupted bounce from 2921.25 just pierced the open’s high by 2 ticks up to 2927.25, neutralizing the upside objective.
Being a no-bias environment, 2926.75‘s test should define the window’s upper-end. It can be probed later, but probably no higher than yesterday’s 2928.00-2930.00 highs. Probing above it during the no-bias environment would require being retraced. Resuming the decline would be attracted back down to oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2918.25 low, if not further down to “lower prior highs” at 2914.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Failing to gain traction during the afternoon doesn’t prevent trending from extending the next morning. But it requires that extension to begin by gapping. Monday afternoon’s buyers had failed to gain traction up to 2925.25, so Monday night’s bounce tried to extend the rally into Tuesday morning. But the overnight bounce up to 2934.25 peaked upon filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. Its reaction greeted Tuesday’s open back at Monday’s highs, where bouncing immediately could have resumed the rally, but the reversal only continued. The critical 2919.00 support was probed twice Tuesday afternoon but held its recovery through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s last test of 2919.00 had reacted up into the 2921.00 close, and continued higher into the Globex open. Not even a consolidation interrupted the rally until eventually attacking 2829.00, where a pullback dipped to 2924.50 through Europe’s opens. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has been hovering pessimistically short of the high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Gapping up only above Tuesday’s 2928.25 noon hour high would be optimal, but still would qualify for gapping up into a morning rally. That may be moot by the market open, as hovering pessimistically short of the high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, breaking yet higher before the open would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Anxiousness ahead, this time ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events, could restrain price action again into and out of the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.75 would be likely to trigger the 2926.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2922.00 | 2926.75 |
| …would target | 2928.00 | 2932.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2915.25 | 2920.25 |
| …would target | 2909.75 | 2914.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | .2914.00 | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.