S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Literally sideways.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s bounce had attacked 2929.00 before dipping into Wednesday’s open. After holding a dip to almost 2920.00, another bounce got to 2930.00 ahead of the FOMC policy statements. Its reaction extended up to 2936.00. And that was the end of that. Dipping into the bias environment exit plunged through the Fed Chair’s Q&A through the final hour down to 2907.50. “Lower prior highs” at 2914.00 was tested, and maintained its break, as did 2919.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Literally, overnight action has ranged sideways. Gradually firming into the Globex session eventually attacked 2916.00 just before midnight. That was retraced gradually back down to touch yesterday’s 2907.50 low through Europe’s opens, as they essentially played “catch-up” to discount yesterday’s late U.S. plunge while they were closed. In the briefer time since then, 2916.00 has been retested, and is still being tested now.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Exiting Thursday’s open above 2914.00–2919.00 would be optimal for a morning bounce, albeit probably not durable. Launching a durable rally would be premature. The pattern’s next lower attraction is 2900.25. Closing under 2919.00 has significantly threatened to become a more substantial drop, which would be validated more so by maintaining the decline’s steepness, and less so by simply closing lower. A recovery would likely begin gradually, and not necessarily be obvious or gain confidence soon. In either case, a probe under yesterday’s low is likely — the sideways overnight range may seem stable, but at this stage it is no more a reflection of strength than was yesterday’s last-minute narrow ranging at the low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2917.00 would be likely to trigger the 2915.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2914.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2905.50 | 2915.50 |
| …would target | 2917.00 | 2922.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2898.75 | 2903.75 |
| …would target | 2892.50 | 2897.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
FOMC policy statements already offer the most opportune trading windows. The quarterly Q&A is even better.
Wednesday’s was greeted after having expended all room for intraday noise, back up to Tuesday’s 2928.25-2930.25 highs. 
Already having probed higher overnight to Friday’s 2934.25 close, its intraday retest was likely at least to test 2936.00 — in fact, that was the afternoon’s bias-up target. The FOMC reaction soon touched 2936.00, and awaited the Fed Chair.
The Q&A triggered a drop targeting 2924.00-2925.00. Its test produced a bounce through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, when breaking lower would have triggered a collapse. A collapse developed anyway — from attacking Tuesday’s highs up to 2930.00 and plunging to 2907.50.
“Lower prior highs” at 2914.00 was tested, and maintained its break, as did 2919.00. Exiting Thursday’s open above 2914.00–2919.00 would be optimal for a morning bounce. Launching a durable rally would be premature. The pattern’s next lower attraction is 2900.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The multi-session range extended to a fifth session as its 1.1815 low was tested Wednesday, and held, surging back into the range up to 1.1875 in reaction to FOMC. Closing under 1.1785 would help to confirm a breakout’s validity. Bounces meanwhile should hold any test of 1.1900 resistance.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday to the range’s lower-end at its 1291.50 sell signal probed lower intraday under 1197.80. Almost any initial weakness Thursday would be credible for launching a new downleg.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of 14.56 didn’t extend higher, and didn’t hold up to suggest 14.80 might also be in-play. But the intraday reversal down to 14.40 doesn’t reverse momentum down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC events were greeted from the morning having gapped up hovered in positive territory. But it was a position of weakness at Tuesday’s close, which is what matters, having hovered above prior lows Tuesday despite probing lower overnight down to 139-17. Blipping-up in reaction to the news still has room up to 141-16 without even beginning to threaten reversing the trend up.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday is too late to reject Monday’s surge to fresh highs. The 73.90-74.25 target area remains intact, especially so long as pullbacks hold 70.60 as support.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down intraday for a change on Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report with a constructive 9-cent dip to 3.00, and upside potential to at least 3.12 in reaction to Thursday’s report.
Mid-day Update… Eagerly awaiting.
Greeting FOMC events optimistically.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2921.25 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2926.75 bias-up signal. This was regardless of having attacked 2926.75 to within 1 tick at the open.
2926.75 was tested, and its test defined the window’s upper-end until the bias environment began lapsing. Probing it up to 2929.00 was corrected, and now the noon hour is being exited at 2930.00.
2-3 healthy moves. But so far, only noise within yesterday’s range. As it should be, if not already breaking out much earlier, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events. Moves are likely to accelerate and extend, so we’ll be keeping up with them in real-time in the chaRTroom.