S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Relentless.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s open was the market’s version of “bait & switch.” After only ranging sideways Sunday night, Monday’s open was greeted flat with Friday’s close. But all of that complacency suddenly gave way to a post-open decline. Attacking the morning’s 2906.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick through 10:15 didn’t trigger it, but it was invalidated by breaking lower through 10:30. Sellers were rewarded down to 2900.50, taking 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs simultaneously oversold. Bouncing out of the noon hour retested Friday’s 2910.00 gap up, which was still being tested at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s recovery continued without delay at the Globex open, but incrementally, which still qualifies as relentless. A blip-up attacked the 2914.50 prior night’s high and retraced back down to 2910.00. Another blip-up after midnight to 2916.50 was retraced back down to 2913.00. Having chipped away at resistance, Europe’s opens was soon followed by a surge to 2920.00-2921.25, which has been fluctuating around the 2919.00 bias-up target for several hours, forming a “new Globex trend extreme” that is often retested the same day.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Monday morning’s collapse stopped short of touching last week’s “lower prior highs” at 2898.00 and lower. This disqualified the afternoon’s recovery from neutralizing Friday’s 2910.00 open above all prior highs. So, a downleg wouldn’t yet be credible for extending. Meanwhile, the shallow dips reflected that optimism remained high. No matter how bearish that is from a contrarian perspective, impatient buyers are often rewarded anyway — just not by nearly as much as anticipated. So, probing fresh highs had become likelier before first dipping any deeper, having stopped short twice Friday afternoon and Monday morning. Fresh highs remain vulnerable to rejection, although gapping up does make that window brief again like Friday. Unlike Friday, the overnight rally should resolve in one direction or the other immediately and/or more substantially. I describe these routes specifically in the Market Tour recording.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2920.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2919.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2926.50-2928.00. Exiting the open above 2915.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2913.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2908.50 | 2913.00 |
| …would target | 2914.50 | 2919.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2902.25 | 2906.75 |
| …would target | 2894.25 | 2898.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Relatively narrow ranging Sunday night persisted right into Monday’s flat open. That turned out to be false advertising, as a decline suddenly began. The morning’s 2906.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick to avoid triggering, but it was broken through 10:30 to be invalidated. Sellers were rewarded down to 2900.50, where oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs will require an eventual retest.
The open’s collapse still stopped short of touching last week’s “lower prior highs” at 2898.00 and lower. So, bouncing out of the noon hour retested Friday’s 2910.00 gap up, but the bounce wasn’t qualified to neutralize its attraction. Friday’s dip was also too shallow. Impatient buyers are often rewarded, but not by nearly as much as anticipated. So, a fresh high remains vulnerable to rejection.
Meanwhile, there was glaring divergence among S&Ps, the Dow, and NDX. The Dow probed Friday’s highs Sunday night, while ES held within 1 tick, and NQs didn’t come close. Yet each opened essentially unchanged from Friday’s cash session close. Then each repeated its relative performance intraday — the Dow’s dip stopped short of touching Friday’s low, while NQs probed decisively lower. All of which is a warning sign, not only when ES also underperforms, but more so when the relative performance is repeated both above and below.
ES probing a fresh high Tuesday would offer an opportunity to compare the Dow and NQs for signs that the relative performance is persisting. Its rejection could accelerate down into Wednesday. A new trend high close could be bullish, at least for probing another fresh high intraday Wednesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s gap up and surge to fresh recovery highs was the inverted Head & shoulders second breakout attempt. A second consecutive higher close to confirm would be helpful, but not necessary, so long as reactions don’t break back under a relevant support. Monday’s gap up didn’t extend, but its reaction held Friday’s intraday lows to maintain its upside momentum.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Monday’s open under Friday’s lows did hold a test of the two-week old 1285.00 low that had launched the interim rally to 1315.00. Back above 1295.00 would signal the retracement was done and momentum is reversing back up. Otherwise, a fresh low close on Tuesday would be difficult to recover this week.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s drop gapped down to Thursday’s 14.85 low and consolidated, but surged out of the morning back up to Friday’s 14.98 close. The gap down doesn’t require being filled because it overlapped prior prior action. Closing above 15.00 would signal the drop had likely ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow unchanged ranging persisted from Sunday night through Monday, barely attempting to reject Friday’s break lower from Thursday’s dip. Bounces are likely to fail.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 63.00 pullback limit that was attacked Thursday to within 20 cents, was probed briefly Monday. Interim price action had filled the 65.00 gap, so closing lower would threaten the 62.00 sell signal.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite avoiding fresh lows into the weekend, the weekend’s exit probed new lows. Sunday night gapped down to prior lows and Monday morning trended lower. No immediate recovery attempt would be credible for extending.
Mid-day Update… Leaving unfinished business.
Is it a trail to find its way back down?
Friday’s session was inert, retracing two intraday trending attempts in either direction, to close unchanged with its open. Not equilibrium, which would be unlikely to trend, at all. Today’s session has been neither, as trending has developed in both directions.
Down, at least. But only to probe under Friday afternoon’s 2907.50 low, and not back into “lower prior highs” beginning at 2898.00. Now the noon hour’s ranging has firmed up to this afternoon’s 2908.50 bias-up signal. Back under 2905.50 would start to signal the noon hour’s bounce had ended, and that the balance of the session would try resuming its decline.
It’s too late to trigger bias-up, or to invalidate no-bias. Probing above 2908.50 now would be “no-bias trending” that requires retracement. Holding 2908.50 until the bias environment begins lapsing could probe overnight highs — and fulfill the outstanding requirement for another trend high close.