S&P
Mid-day Update… Fallen and can’t get up.
Room for noise being probed.
This morning’s drop eventually extended down to 2869.00, well under the 2882.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down didn’t trigger, and noN-bias was narrowly avoided, but we gave it a benefit of the doubt anyway because of the 1-tick difference.
Room for noise under yesterday’s low down to 2875.00 was itself exceeded by 7 points down to 2869.00. A close-quarters Double Bottom bounced only to test 2878.00 into noon, and the noon hour’s exit tested 2868.00.
This afternoon’s 2871.00 bias-down signal has held its test to trigger no-bias. And now RSIs aren’t simultaneously oversold at the low. No timing window has yet recovered a relevant level like 2880.25 or 2884.50 to invalidate the decline. Back above 2875.25-2876.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a recovery underway. Back under 2870.00 would signal the recovery had failed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report is being released in a relative vacuum Friday morning with no other reports scheduled. There’s still a Fed speaker or two nearby, and their remarks can also keep volatility active, to the degree that either accentuates or contradicts the report .
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2882.25 | 2883.00 |
| …would target | 2887.50 | 2888.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2870.25 | 2871.00 |
| …would target | 2863.00 | 2863.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers stiffed.
Post-open bounce traps longs, sellers pounce.
Greeting the open unchanged at 2888.00-2889.00 was essentially a standing-stop. That’s a difficult and dangerous setup to pick one resolution or the other. 
Not only for the lack of momentum, but also for the attraction to unchanged that would likely inhibit or doom a post-open trending attempt.
At least a narrowing range greeted the open, too, so some trending attempt or attempts would be possible. And there were trending attempts. First a dip down to 2885.50 and then its reaction up to almost 2893.00. Both overlapped unchanged, and that influence wasn’t finished, as another reversal slid back into negative territory at 2880.25.
The grace period was invoked, and very narrowly triggered no-bias. But as I described in real-time in the chaRTroom, we’re treating it as a noN-bias that doesn’t have any bias requirement. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2877.25 low has been neutralized.
It’s being probed down to 2871.50, under room for noise. And it must be rejected back above 2880.25 or optimally 2884.50 through a relevant timing window to avoid putting into play 2857.00. Back above 2878.00 would be the first signal a recovery is being attempted.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pre-Payrolls chop?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Dropping back down to Tuesday’s lows overnight had all but ensured that Wednesday’s open wouldn’t gap up. And that was the only way to resume rallying immediately since buyers hadn’t gained traction. More so, Tuesday’s lows — and the overnight retests — had narrowly avoided fulfilling their potential down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. But Wednesday’s first hour took care of that, collapsing down to 2877.50. Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low require its eventual retest. Meanwhile, a couple of higher lows formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher while triggering the afternoon’s 2888.75 bias-up signal. Stopping 2 points short of its 2995.00 bias-up target, the balance of the afternoon only ranged flat-to-lower back down to within 1 tick of 2884.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding at 2877.50 below and 2995.00 above.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging has persisted overnight in a wide, sideways choppiness. First bouncing back up to 2891.00 didn’t hold, and Europe was greeted by dipping back under Wednesday’s lows down to 2882.00. That’s where and when the dip stopped, at least for now, bouncing to attack yesterday afternoon’s highs near 2893.00. Now another dip is probing 3-4 points back into negative territory and attacking yesterday afternoon’s low down to 2885.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing at or around 2888.00-2889.00 wasn’t decisive enough to assume whether the next “unfinished business” to be resolved is of 2877.50 below or of 2995.00 above. Testing the lower objective first would at least tell us the weakness since last week has probably been defensive posturing ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. That’s the more bullish scenario for greeting the news — testing the lower objective, probably down to 2875.00, and bouncing from its test. Meanwhile, 2995.00 could be probed by another 10 points before even beginning to suggest the pullback is being recovered, instead of just corrected temporarily.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2884.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2882.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.