S&P
Post-open Review… Just negative sentiment ahead of payrolls?
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens after this morning… So, Daily Spot and Market Wrap will be published overnight.
The overnight attack on 2884.50 was recovered to attack the 2895.50 bias-down signal before the open. Its reaction down to within 2 ticks of the 2888.75 bias-down target was retraced entirely. Ultimately,
the bias-down target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Renewed bias-down targets were essentially 2884.50 and 2880.25. Both have been probed down to 2877.50.
Exiting the bias window back above 2888.75 would have upside potential to fill the gap at yesterday’s close back up to 2899.00, possibly also launching a more powerful rally. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the 2877.50 low require a retest. Neutralizing its test and exiting the bias window back above any relevant level could start to seal a bottom.
Testing the 2877.50 low could visit 2875.00. Any lower through a relevant window would start to target 2857.00, and more so, put the market on defense. Currently, the drop from last week’s highs could prove to be backing-and-filling to negotiate negative sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Any deeper for any longer would start to signal a negative reaction coming from Friday’s report.
Meanwhile, a bounce to 2885.75 is trying to reverse up prematurely, before neutralizing oversold RSIs. Which could happen, albeit less likely. But back under 2882.50 would signal the bounce was a detour, and the low’s retest remains intact.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square <-2>.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The 3-day holiday weekend was exited back at Friday’s 2891.25 low. A brief bounce resolved down to a fresh low at 2886.00, which was retested after probing a fresh session high at 2901.00. The low’s retest down to 2885.50 which nearly touched the 2884.50 attraction for the current downleg. The balance of the session firmed into the close, and the entire session developed in negative territory. No traction was gained, and no new unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging sideways at yesterday’s highs up to 2890.50 began reversing down into Europe’s opens. Extending down tested and retested yesterday’s low down to 2885.00. Ranging at the lows up to 2889.50 for several hours is just now trying to break higher.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s intraday rallies had failed to leave oversold territory, and none gained traction for their efforts or left outstanding higher objectives. None of which is necessarily bearish, but not gapping up today has left open the door to retesting yesterday’s low — especially since yesterday’s low did not fully exploit the room below to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Gapping down keeps that lower potential alive, while also creating an attraction above to the gap back up to yesterday’s close.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2891.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2902.50 | 2903.00 |
| …would target | 2908.50 | 2909.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2894.50 | 2895.00 |
| …would target | 2888.25 | 2888.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour…
Tuesday afternoon’s rally from its 2885.50 low got to 2889.00, yet still remained in negative territory. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high could have gained traction by extending higher into the final hour, but didn’t. Even the 3:10-3:20 proxy window failed to exploit the opportunity to confirm upside traction.
None of which points down Wednesday. But rallying without delay won’t be credible without gapping up above a relevant resistance. Tuesday morning’s 2901.00 high would be a start, but less than optimal.
Stopping 1 point short of touching the next lower objective at 2884.50 wasn’t a deal killer for launching a credible rally. But not yet launching a credible rally does suggest 2884.50 will be better tested, and probably down to 2880.25, without gapping up sufficiently Wednesday morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dropping from Friday’s close to 1.1540 filled an outstanding gap below, but leaves outstanding the minimum likely attraction below at 1.1400.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply lower lows coming out of the weekend down to 1195.00 could finally be fulfilling a retest of the recent 1167.00 overnight low, at least own to its 1172.50 objective, but needs a second consecutive lower close to confirm.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The delay in filling the month-old gap had made new lows likely under 14.30, which Tuesday’s slide out of the weekend fulfilled down to 14.03. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would suggest much lower lows to follow.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Last week’s bounce was rejected immediately back under the 143-18 sell signal, probing it down to 143-02. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm last week’s bounce was only a temporary correction.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Stopping short of its 70.55 corrective bounce objective last week was not reversed down, and its reaction held the 69.50 pullback limit. Surging before Tuesday’s open gapped up to 71.22 and reacted down sharply to attack 69.50. Potential for extending higher would invalidated by closing under 69.50.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back down to 2.83 Tuesday all but rejected Friday’s close above the 2.93 buy signal. Closing under 2.83 now requires a second consecutive lower close to confirm the decline’s momentum has resumed.