S&P
Mid-day Update… Trying for another bottom.
A lot of selling, so far holding support.
The open’s dip to 2886.25 was retested after this morning’s noN-bias environment had bounced to test 2901.00. 
The noon hour’s fresh low at 2885.50 was itself retraced up to 2994.00, avoiding the 2890.25 bias-down signal.
Probing under 2892.25 was likely to test the next lower objective at 2884.50. Coming to within 1 point and then triggering a buy signal would not be a deal killer to potential for rallying this afternoon. It’s a calculable support, so not touching it isn’t necessarily excessive optimism.
But while bias-down may not have triggered, it can still be invalidated through 1:30. Avoiding that, or even no-bias trending under 2890.25 can derail an afternoon rally. Yet, having held two more tests of 2888.00 and not triggering bias-down, the burden of proof is on sellers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar has no high-profile or influential reports. The afternoon’s Fed speaker comes so late that he may be a catalyst for volatility that has been rare at that time recently.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2896.00 |
| …would target | 2901.00 | 2901.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2889.50 | 2890.25 |
| …would target | 2883.75 | 2884.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A for effort.
Post-open dip is retraced, but not reversed.
The overnight dip to 2892.00 had recovered to 2898.25 resistance, where the open was greeted an hour later. 
Almost suddenly, post-open action plunged through the 2895.50 bias-down signal to test the 2888.00 bias-down target by almost 2 points.
Only one of the bars probing 2888.00 was a detached bar, and it wasn’t confirmed by a second. Rallying almost straight up from there to 2900.00 barely invoked the grace period, which triggered noN-BIAS.
Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters was almost put into play. So was a retest of the 2888.00 bias-down target. Either remains possible. But even if we knew which, with 100% certainty that one or the other was required, the path there would not be direct or reliable — nothing like the two legs that already played out — primarily because the opening dip’s recovery never recovered into positive territory.
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square <-1>.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2897.50 only attacked Thursday’s 2902.00 close, holding the 2898.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction quickly fulfilled the bias objective, an offsetting test of the 2907.50 bias-up signal. But just opening within the range of Thursday’s lows had made lower lows likely, probably down to unfinished business below at 2892.25. Which trending back down into the noon hour fulfilled. The afternoon ranged sideways at the lows again, keeping alive potential for extending down deeper to 2884.50 or 2880.25. Trade headlines inhibited any trending, until Canada’s trade negotiator held her press conference as the close rallied up to 2906.00. No traction was gained, and no new “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Closed US markets and no news from Asia on Sunday night (having no audience for its news) left Europe’s opens more influential. Until then, price had ranged flat-to-lower to 2903.00. But a surge at Europe’s opens tested 2910.00 and eventually extended up to 2912.50. All of which was retraced to attack 2910.00 into Monday’s Globex close. Monday night’s Globex open has been a round-trip — first, testing Friday’s low down to 2902.00 and bouncing again to test 2912.00, then returning back down to Friday’s lows. Typical 3-day holiday weekend stuff, until getting aggressive, now sliding sharply to 2892.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’m traveling this week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour… The week was likely to begin with a struggle between an attraction below, and unfinished business above at 2918.00. Two rally attempts Sunday and Monday nights stopped 6 points short of 2918.00, which suggests two things — that potential for a deeper pullback remains alive, and that eventually resuming the rally should probe even higher. So, that deeper pullback is underway if Tuesday’s open doesn’t hold Friday and Monday night’s 2901.75-2902.75 lows. That’s compared to Friday’s 2901.00 cash session closing equivalent. Similarly, almost anything holding above Friday’s 2906.00 futures close should be bullish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2904.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2897.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-down signal.