S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: At least two reports among Tuesday morning’s triple-whammy of industrial data are reliable for influencing price action. The morning’s Fed speaker just spoke Monday afternoon during closed markets, so his influence on price action should be limited.
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2904.25 | 2904.50 |
| …would target | 2910.75 | 2911.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2895.00 | 2895.50 |
| …would target | 2887.50 | 2888.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m traveling next week, and will have a staggered intraday schedule after the Market Tour and opening hour.
Well, that was interesting. And useful, as a reminder of the difference between context and timing. The context was an overnight range at Thursday’s lows, showing no interest in rejecting Thursday afternoon’s plunge. Lower lows were likely, probably down to unfinished business below at 2892.25.
But the open bounced, at least enough to probe above the 2898.25 bias-down signal. And then enough to trigger a buy signal. And then enough to fulfill the bias objective, an offsetting test of the 2907.50 bias-up signal.
And in time to invoke the grace period. Which held the bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of its bias-down signal… back down to 2898.25. Which was probed to fresh lows, including 2892.25, as the contextual clues had suggested.
Such is the volatility vulnerability of thinning volume. It’s a little surprising not have extending deeper to 2884.50 or 2880.25 compensating for the delay. Its test clearly wasn’t necessary to allow Friday’s late rally up to 2906.00 as Canada’s trade negotiator held her press conference. So, the new week will begin with a struggle between an attraction below, and unfinished business above at 2918.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND… ENJOY THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still overlapping the 1.1675 sell signal into Friday’s open immediately extended to a fresh pullback low testing 1.1600. Closing any lower would confirm the trend has reversed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Cleanly triggering the 1207.50 sell signal Thursday didn’t extend down any deeper than Thursday afternoon’s 1202.00 low before rallying overnight to attack 1215.00. That reacted back down under 1207.50, which remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s 14.82 sell signal was probed that day down to 14.55, but no lower overnight. Friday was almost an inside day, but dipped lower into the afternoon, as the sell signal’s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a 18-tick discount from Sep]…. Thursday’s failure to reinstate Tuesday’s break lower to 144-10 was rewarded by extending the bounce into and out of Friday’s open up to 145-16. Closing back under 144-26 would trigger another attempt to resume the decline.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Coming to within a nickel of the 70.55 minimum bounce objective Thursday already created a reaction down without yet touching 70.55. It remains in-play, with potential to extend higher through 72.00, so long as 69.50 holds pullbacks.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing the 2.87 buy signal for a second consecutive close finally broke higher overnight, gapping up at Friday’s open and extending higher to 2.93. Leaving the gap outstanding below is not optimal to extending higher near-term, but it forms support below that helps to prevent a reversal down from extending.
Mid-day Update… Been here, downed that.
Back to ranging at the lows.
The open didn’t gap up above any relevant level (or gap up at all) to even try negating the traction sellers gained yesterday.
Lower lows were likely. None of which prevented surging at the open, but only to touch the 2907.50 bias-up signal — and then not to trigger it.
That put into play an offsetting test of the 2898.25 bias-down signal. The open had been greeted there. So, a test of it was in-play, but not testing it wouldn’t be required. It was tested anyway, as the bias window lapsed.
Extending lower during the noon hour tested unfinished business at 2892.25. Piercing it by 2 ticks was enough to launch a reaction attacking 2898.00, and to avoid triggering bias-down.
Sellers are probably done for the day. Buyers may be done, too, although there’s room up to the 2899.00 bias-up signal and then higher after the bias window starts lapsing. But even if thee’s a bounce back under 2893.75 would start to signal lower lows into the weekend, next targeting 2884.50 down to 2880.25.