S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The long-awaited likely test of 2902.00 was neutralized well before Friday’s open, by surging from under 2896.00. Its room for noise up to 2911.00 was eventually pierced by 3 ticks, also before the open.
The open’s gap up surged to attack 2915.00, in time to suggest that any reversal would be relatively shallow and temporary. Its reaction held a 38.2% retracement of the open’s gap, natural support.
The balance of the session firmed coming out of the morning’s bias environment. The afternoon’s bias environment was resisted by 2911.00 until the very last-minute blipped up to 2913.00.
The was a new trend high close on a Friday all but requires at least an eventual higher close. Gapping up above all prior intraday highs all but ensures recovering from any interim pullback, too. The quarterly earnings onslaught takes a much higher profile next week.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bullish Inside Day and its intraday touch of uptrending support helped to clear the path for surging overnight, through the 1.1345 confirmation that the low’s inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is underway. Its nearest likely targets are 1.1395 and 1.1440 .
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight helped to set the tone for not extending Thursday’s collapse, and instead to maintain it being only a rogue leg in the ongoing pattern of false starts and stops. Closing back above 1291.50 is still needed for confirmation, if not also to re-trigger another rally leg underway targeting recent highs at 1313.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already bouncing overnight underscored how much Thursday’s drop had approached the precipice without falling over. But closing back above relevant resistance at 15.15 is needed to avoid the drop from making a second attempt at extending down. Friday’s inside day won’t have much influence past the weekend.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s rejection of Wednesday’s 148-16 resistance test had reacted down to uptrending pivotal support at 147-22, and extended down overnight to and soon through the 147-22 sell signal. The sell signal is now resistance, but a second consecutive lower close is still needed to confirm the trend is reversing down.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attack on the 63.20 pullback limit rallied overnight to essentially fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s 64.50 close, which was also filled intraday. The gap-fill held, but the ongoing 65.00-67.00 target remains intact.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The negative knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report kept price under pressure intraday and Friday. But the preferable pullback objective at 2.65 was met and held. And avoiding a new low close allows a credible recovery above 2.71.
Mid-day Update… Path of least resistance (or least support).
MARKET WRAP IS 30 MINUTES EARLY AT 3:03 ET (I’m away from the screens for the last half-hour).
This morning’s reaction down to its 2904.50 target got 3 ticks deeper before bouncing 3 points on oversold RSIs. 
RSIs diverged positively into a lower low at 2902.50, which also tested the 38.2% retracement between yesterday’s close and today’s gap up.
With the morning’s bias environment ending, the reaction’s sponsorship was likely done. More so, being a Friday, the morning’s bias-up undercurrent was likely to persist through the noon hour. The setup was likely to bounce.
The bounce’s objective at 2910.00-2911.00 held its test. Also being the bias-up signal, this is now a no-bias environment. So, 2911.00 should define the window’s upper-end.
Trending higher into the weekend is possible — again, it’s Friday. No-bias trending during the no-bias environment is possible, too — same reason. Never underestimate Friday afternoon trending when a morning counter-trend attempt has failed. Meanwhile, no further upside is required, and there remains vulnerability to the downside.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 15, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s sole econ report is high-profile, but only one Fed survey is reliably influential to price action and this isn’t it. A Fed speaker’s comments may begin hitting the tape soon afterward. Any reaction can be gauged to anticipate potential afternoon reactions to the same speaker.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2906.75 | 2911.00 |
| …would target | 2913.25 | 2917.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2895.25 | 2899.50 |
| …would target | 2889.75 | 2893.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.