S&P
Post-open Review… Abridged too far.
Gap up’s extension fails.
Room for noise above 2902.00 up to 2911.00 was probed by 3 ticks pre-open. 
Its consolidation down to 2908.25 fluctuated narrowly through the open, and then surged even higher to attack 2915.00.
But the fresh high’s reaction down to 2911.00 never recovered. Still overlapping it at the top of the hour started to suggest the post-open surge was weak-handed.
Not that the trend must reverse down — the potential for a quick post-open collapse became invalidated not only by the post-open surge, but also by coming so far past the open. However, retracing the open’s gap became likely.
The retracement’s 2904.50 target is met and pierced by 3 ticks. Back above 2907.25 would start to signal a retest of the 2908.25 open, if not also 2911.00. Otherwise, fresh pullback lows under 2903.75 would target 2898.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Good timing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying into two overnight retests of Monday night’s 2900.00 high had preceded Thursday’s 2898.00 open. But the opening hour ranged sideways to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. The morning bias environment’s exit collapsed under it 2891.50 low to 2885.50, and then only ranged sideways through the afternoon bias environment’s exit. The final hour bounced back up to 2893.50, which was too late and too shallow to confirm momentum had reversed back up. It was the seventh consecutive session of intraday ranging, supported at or above 2880.00 or 2886.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming a little further through the Globex open attacked 2896.00. Ranging sideways through midnight continued attacking 2896.00. Not until after Europe’s opens did the range break, which it did with a vengeance. China economic and monetary developments triggered a spike up to 2900.00, which extended up to 2906.00. And now a consolidation there has resolved up to attack 2909.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Fresh highs above 2900.00 remained likely as each of this week’s downlegs was weak-handed, and also each downleg was retraced. But is this only an obligatory probe of fresh highs. Extended narrowing ranges become vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. So, fresh highs are vulnerable to reversing down, from anywhere in the 2902.00-2911.00 range. Not reversing down already through the open, at least as a warning shot, would become more vulnerable to extending in that direction — especially this being a Friday. And this being a Friday, reversing overnight strength early enough would be likely to reverse down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2904.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2902.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2898.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2895.75 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.75 |
| …would target | 2898.25 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2883.75 | 2887.50 |
| …would target | 2877.25 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting and re-retesting Monday night’s 2900.00 high ahead of Thursday’s open makes an eventual probe only a formality. Which might not seem credible after being under pressure throughout Thursday’s session. And which might be rejected anyway if Thursday’s 2886.00 support is breaking lower through Friday’s open.
Meanwhile, Thursday was the seventh consecutive session of intraday ranging, supported at or above 2880.00 or 2886.00. Extended narrowing ranges become vulnerable to breaking falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
So, fresh highs up to 2902.00-2911.00 would be vulnerable to reversing down, and dipping 2874.00-2876.00 could snap back up above highs. Testing either limit without reversing would become more vulnerable to extending in that direction, especially being a Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s impressive recovery from its early dip down to uptrending support that closed positive, failed to extend higher Thursday. Not for lack of trying, with the open having firmed. One day of consolidating the prior session’s Outside Day can be dismissed, but the rally must be underway into the weekend if the bottom is valid.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down into negative territory already failed to trigger an early buy signal. Extending down sharply intraday Thursday under the original 1301.50 buy signal makes the rally’s immediate resumption no less urgent to avoid another deep pullback intraday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thurdsay’s gap down under the 15.15 buy signal probed two week old lows down to 14.85. The pattern cannot tolerate any lower close. Only an immediate recovery would be credible for launching a new rally leg, and any delay would start making lower lows likelier.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s test and retest of the 148-16 buy signal had never triggered, and wasn’t attempted again on Thursday. Meanwhile, its pullback fell down to the lower-end of uptrending pivotal support, where any second consecutive lower close on Friday would resume the rally.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still not testing the 64.75 overnight highs, let alone the long outstanding 65.00 target, Thursday’s dip attacked the 63.20 pullback limit. Regardless of whether it is probed intraday, a higher close Friday may be the only near-term path to fulfill the pattern’s target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength. Positive territory was never probed. Its intraday pullback has satisfied any attraction below so that closing above 2.71 would new highs.